Welcome! Following last night’s bloodbath, today’s Show Notes will be a bit different. Enjoy and listen live ** here**.
We cannot say the polling was wrong. It was right. And the most precise polling is the Exit Polling. I ran the exit polling through Claude and asked it to rank the order of voter priority. Contrary to the claims circulating on social media that it was all about Iran, the exit polling reveals that Iran was more of an accelerant to other issues. After a review of the data from the various media consortiums, here is what the data shows:
**Cost of living and inflation.**79% say inflation caused their family severe or moderate hardship. 62% blame higher prices more on Trump’s policies than on factors beyond his control. 65% say his policies worsened the economy, against 27% who say they improved it. 75% rate the economy poor, 44% say they are worse off than two years ago, and 39% named the economy the top issue.BBC·AP via PBS·NBC**Tariffs.**64% say tariffs hurt the national economy (D 78–19), and 63% say they hurt their local economy (D 79–18). Only 15% say tariffs helped their area. That is the most lopsided policy verdict in the poll, and voters judged it by their own towns.**Government corruption.**90% called it a crucial or major factor.About half called it “crucial,” a larger share than for immigration, Iran, or AI, andabout 6 in 10 say Trump puts his own interests first.About 4 in 10 voters who called it crucial still went Republican.BBC**The Iran war and fuel costs.**63% say the attack was the wrong decision, against 37% who say it was right. 74% called the war a crucial or major factor, thoughonly about a third called it crucial. 59% are “very concerned” about gas and diesel prices.Gas averaged $4.15, about $1.11 above a year earlier, and diesel averaged $6.29.About a quarter of Republicans say the war was wrong.BBC**Democracy and checks on Trump.**32% named the state of democracy the top issue, andabout 8 in 10 of them voted Democratic.About 7 in 10 say Congress isn’t checking the President enough, including about 4 in 10 Republicans.43% voted to oppose Trump and 16% to support him.His approval stood at 38%.BBC**Immigration (the GOP’s floor).**14% named it the top issue.Republicans kept a small edge on the issue, andit mattered more to Republican voters. Even so,57% say enforcement has gone too far.BBCHealthcare.Democrats held a wide advantage here, but few voters named it the top issue.AI and data centers.It ranked below corruption and cost of living, and voters split on which party handles AI better.61% opposed new data centers near them.
Context: 38% of voters were angry and 37% dissatisfied. By group:
Women went D 58–40.
Voters under 45 went roughly two-thirds D.
Hispanic voters went D 62–35.
College graduates went D 62–36.
Non-college voters went R only 51–47.
White voters went R only 51–48.
Just under half view Democrats favorably, against about 4 in 10 for the GOP.👂
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