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We are just days away from Trump’s threatened deadline to escalate the war in Iran. And tonight, one US airman is in danger after his F-15 was shot down over Iran. One crew member was rescued but another remains missing. A second US aircraft, an A-10 Thunderbolt, was struck later; that pilot managed to get the plane out of Iranian airspace and ejected in Kuwait but the plane was lost.
It raises an uncomfortable question about the White House’s central claim: that Iran’s military has been destroyed. The regime still has the ability to control the Strait of Hormuz. It still has the ability to strike key infrastructure in the Gulf. And it has the ability to take down our jets.
Also today: Iran mobilizes for a ground war. Are US losses higher than we’re being told? A wartime firing raises questions. Trump wants a bigger Pentagon budget. Bondi’s out — the Epstein questions aren’t. Strong jobs report, but read the fine print. Trump’s “library” will take your reservation. And something nice from space.
Somewhat Stoppable: An F-15E jet wasshot down over IranFriday. One crew memberhas been rescued. The other is still missing. Videos and photosshow US aircraft and helicoptersconducting what experts describe asone of the most intensemilitary search and rescue operations in decades. Iran managed to hit a search and rescueplane and multiple helicopters. The helicopters survived, but the plane crashed in Kuwait; the pilot was rescued.This is the first time since the start of the war that a US jet has been downed by enemy fire.(Three F-15Es wereshot down by friendly fire.) It raises questions about the Trump administration’s portrayal of Iran’s remaining military capabilities. Just this weekboth Trumpand Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth insistedthe US had controlover Iran’s skies.Trump“We are unstoppable as a military force,” he said.on Wednesday claimedthere was “not a thing” Iran could do to stop US strikes.Burning Bridges: The US on Thursdaydestroyed a major bridge in Iran. Trump shared a video of the attack and warned there would be “much more to follow.” US officials claimed it was part of a military supply route. Local officials contend there was “no military activity” there and said thestrikes killed eight people and wounded 95. A former state department lawyer said he thinks the bridge “was targeted not to provide any military advantage but in the hopes of coercing Tehran and generating content.” Yes, you read that right. A former US government official says White House content strategy now includes airstrikes.Digging In: Iran isreportedly preparing for a US ground invasion. The regime has launched a massive recruitment campaign titled “Sacrifice,” seekingvolunteers as young as 12to support defensive operations. Officials are alsohardening defensesin key areas, like Kharg Island. “Territorial integrity is a red line for most Iranians,” one women’s rights activist who fled the country warned, “whether they support the regime or oppose it.”Head in the Sand: Anew reportby the Intercept alleges that the Pentagon is underreporting US casualty numbers, lagging behind on updates, and providing less information to reporters than usual.The report estimates that over 520 US troops have been injured since the war began. We’ve heard similar things from members of the News Not Noise community. If you’re willing to reach out, you can reach us on Signal at: Sagecynthia.81
Comp Your Stay: The Pentagonrefused to sayhow many US bases have been damaged by Iran’s strikes. A New York Timesreport concludedthatmany of the 13 bases in the region are “all but uninhabitable”thanks to Iranian attacks. Onemilitary analyst arguedthe“Pentagon did little to protect” bases from the “rapid proliferation of drones and cheap missiles,” leaving troops vulnerable. In response, US officials havesent troops to hotelsand offices throughout the region, whichexperts warncould be a violation of both international humanitarian law and the Pentagon’s own laws of war. (Iran hasthreatened to strike hotelsin the region.)Purge Continues: Defense Secretary Hegseth on Thursdayfired Army Chief of Staff Randy Georgeand two other generals. OnePentagon official saidit was “time for a leadership change.” The highly unusual move — firing an Army chief during a war —caught senior Army leadershipby surprise, especially since his work is crucial to the ongoing campaign in Iran. OneGOP lawmaker, caught off guard by the abrupt firing, said George had “a brilliant mind.” Critics say it demonstrates thegrowing hostilitybetween Hegseth and Army leadership. One example: George reportedly refused to accede to Hegseth’s demands he block the promotions of several female and Black officers. One of the other fired generals was the Army chief of chaplains; this is thefirst time in historythe chief of chaplains has been fired.Use Our Words: Trumpclaimed the Strait of Hormuzwould reopen “naturally” after the war ended. World leaders don’t seem so sure. France and South Korea on Fridayagreed to work togetherto reopen the Strait. They didn’t say how, but France’s President Emmanual Macron on Thursdaysaid that opening it by force, as Trump has repeatedly demanded the world do, is “unrealistic.” Dozens of countries on Thursdayattended a UK-led meetingto discuss joint action to reopen the Strait.Veni, Vidi…: Trump gave his first primetime address since the war began on Wednesday, in whichhe claimed his waris “on track” and will be done “very shortly.” But first, he said the US is “going to hit [Iran] extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.”The Goalposts Have Left the Building: Trump insisted that he’s been clear about his objectives in Iran the whole time. But this speechcontained dizzying contradictions. “We never said regime change,”he argued, though hepreviously called for Iraniansto “take over your government”and calling“freedom for the people” a major goal. Nevertheless,Trump said, “regime change has occurred.… The new group is less radical and much more reasonable.” Reports byUS intelligenceandlocal sourcesindicate the regime has become more hardline since the war began.
This is Fine (Gas Edition):Oil prices jumpedandstocks wobbledafter Trump’s speech.US gas prices are up 37% and diesel prices 47%since the war started.Guns Over Butter: The White House on Fridayasked Congress to, which relative to GDP amounts to theraise the Pentagon’s budgetto $1.5 trillion next year. That’s a 40% increaselargest yearly jumpin defense spending since the Korean War. It couldraise the national debtby up to $6 trillion over the next decade. Trump asked Congress tocut domestic spendingby 10%, calling for sweeping cuts to health, housing, and education programs.
Southern Lebanon, Again: Israel isplanning to occupyroughly 10% of Lebanon to establish a “security zone” in the south. It has deployed thousands of troops and demolished civilian infrastructure, including bridges andvillages. The military argues this willdamage and weaken Hezbollah, which alongside Irancontinues to fire missilesat Israel. According tolocal leaders in south Lebanon, Israeli military officials have told Christian and Druse communities they can remain — while pushing them to expel Shiite Muslims seeking refuge. That’s left residents in the position of risking retaliation by Israel if they refuse and Hezbollah if they accede. “After the last war, we rebuilt our home,”one displaced resident said. “Now it’s all being destroyed again. In the last war, we had some hope to return home. Now we have none.”
You’re Fired: Trump this week fired US Attorney General Pam Bondi. She reportedlyasked to keep her jobuntil the summer, but Trump refused. He’d beencriticizing her in private for months, frustrated by her inability to contain the fallout over the Epstein files and prosecute his political enemies. Bondi herselfreportedly complainedthat Trump was asking her to deliver the impossible. Trump said she is heading for an unspecified role in the private sector. In the DOJ’s offices, herportrait is already in the trash.Who’s Next: Trump is reportedlyconsidering EPA head Lee Zeldinas a replacement. US Attorney for DC Jeanine Pirro, whosources say had“been trying to put the knife in Bondi,” might also be angling for the job. Until then, the acting attorney general will be Bondi’s second-in-command andTrump’s former defense lawyer, Todd Blanche. Blanche wasresponsible for overseeingthe release and redactions of the Epstein files, a process he has fiercely defended. On ThursdayBlanche saidthe Epstein files “should not be a part of anything going forward” at the DOJ. To learn more, watchthis.
It’s Shutdown: House Speaker Mike Johnson caved and agreed to a Senate-approved deal that would end the shutdown — then on Thursdayrefused to act on it. Dozens of his colleagues[object to the compromise](https…
