Capture the hub of a hub-and-spoke alliance, and it collapses. That is the vulnerability NATO has carried since 1945. Putin thought he had captured the hub via his “special relationship” with Donald Trump as Washington went awry. But every place that Vikings ever set foot—Sweden, Canada, and Ukraine at the core; with Germany, the Baltics, the other Nordics; plus France and Britain and Poland; are now building an advance guard: a durable European capability that no longer depends on the United States showing up. For the first time, “and if the Americans don’t come?” has an answer other than “then we lose.” NATO is becoming a web. Webs are much harder to capture than hubs. And they move by rough consensus, not by the will and whims of a single hub.
We have, from Shankar Narayan:
With commentary:
Shankar Narayan: The Coalition of the Doing <[https://www.theconcis.com/p/the-coalition-of-the-doing]>: ‘Canada supplied the trigger. But… what is rare is actually walking through the door. Sweden did. And now the results are starting to pile up…. One country begins running hard and fast… and, in doing so, starts connecting… making the entire structure stronger than the sum of its parts…. Let us rewind the clock to May 27 and then roll it forward, one decision at a time. Because when you see what happened next, laid out in sequence, there really is no other way to describe it: this has been extraordinary…
- Brad DeLong here*: What do I think? This:
Charles Kindleberger taught us that an open international order, whether oriented around trade or security, needs a hegemon willing to be the lender, buyer, and guarantor of “last resort” in economics, and the leader-director in security. In the years after U.S. entry into WWII at the end of 1941 both halves of the post-WWII order outside the Iron Curtain ran on a single anchor, a single hub, the United States.
What Canada triggered, what Sweden walked through, and is now gelling as what Narayan calls the Coalition of the Doing and I call the Viking Alliance is the creation of a new, second potential anchor for the NATO-EU portion of the open international order. What Canada and Sweden and Germany and Ukraine; plus Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Holland, France, and Britain; are doing is building-up an advance guard with a durable, standing capability for military action inside Europe. Procurement, logistics, industrial base, command: the whole stack. And this advance guard’s capability, when built, does not at any point in the causal chain route through the Washington, DC currently controlled by a bunch of grifters, neofascists, and chaos monkeys. An alliance with one indispensable leader is a hub-and-spoke. Hub-and-spokes are brittle exactly where they look strongest. Capture the hub and the thing collapses. But an alliance with two credible centers of gravity in initiating force commitment is a network with redundancy. For the first time since 1945 there exists a plausible answer to the question “and if the Americans don’t come?” that is not simply “then we lose.”
There is irony here, entirely lost on the people who spent a decade demanding Europe “pay its fair share” have gotten their wish: the United States in foreign affairs no longer has its weight multiplied by NATO to the dominant strength of 1,000,000,000 people living in the rich industrial civilization, but only its own 350,000,000.
##neofascism
##war-and-rumors-of-war
##chart-of-the-day
##nato-is-getting-a-second-locus-of-initiative-and-washingtons-power-is-no-longer-automatically-multiplied-to-the-strength-of-a-billion-by-nato-but-finds-its-leadership-of-the-alliance-now-contested
#the-viking-alliance-is-coalescing-
#shankar-narayan
#viking-alliance
#coalition-of-the-doing
#nato
#network-redundancy
#european-defense
#chaos-monkeys
#collective-security
