Welcome to The Week Ahead! Every Sunday evening, I’ll walk you through the week before it happens — the votes, the hearings, the numbers, the games, and the stories I’ll be watching on the radio all week. It’s free. Forward it to a friend.
TL/DR: Texas opens early voting Monday and a dozen more states follow by Saturday. The president holds a rally every day from Monday through Sunday — Kansas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, and Michigan. Wednesday is the biggest debate night left on the calendar. The Fed goes dark after the odds of an October hike collapsed to about 16%, even with inflation running hot, and Netflix, Tesla, and Meta report. Then the Milwaukee Brewers host Game 1 of the World Series Friday, and Brazil picks a president Sunday.
1. Half the country starts voting.
The early vote isn’t a Georgia story anymore. Monday, in-person early voting opens in Texas, South Carolina, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, and Alaska. Wisconsin, Louisiana, Missouri, Utah, and Hawaii follow Tuesday; Maryland and Delaware on Thursday; and Saturday brings Florida’s mandatory early-voting period plus Michigan, New Jersey, and New York.
**Texas is the one.**Early voting runs October 19–30, and Talarico leads Paxton in every recent public poll, all inside the margin: 47-45 in Marist (likely voters, Oct. 8–11), 50-47 in UT/Texas Politics Project, and 48-44 in Siena. CBS/YouGov (Oct. 8–16) calls it essentially tied and says turnout will decide it. Talarico just announced a record $64 million haul, and Paxton never confirmed a single debate. If Republicans lose a Senate seat in Texas, they’ll spend years arguing about whether it was the candidate or the climate. I think we already know.**Georgia is setting the pace.**Georgians cast 188,667 in-person ballots on day one last Tuesday, a midterm record and roughly 40% above 2022’s first day. Friday is the last day to request an absentee ballot, and Saturday is the second and final mandatory Saturday of early voting.**The lens:**Don’t over-read party-registration splits in the first 48 hours. Watch the share of first-week voters who didn’t vote in 2022. That tells you whose base is actually showing up.
2. Seven days, seven rallies — and Debate Wednesday.
The president is on the road every day this week: Park City, Kan. (outside Wichita) Monday for Sen. Roger Marshall; Greenville, N.C., Tuesday for Michael Whatley; Clemson, S.C., Wednesday; Sioux City, Iowa, Thursday; Fort Myers, Fla., Friday; Macon, Ga., Saturday; and St. Clair County, Mich., Sunday. Every one of those states has a Senate race on the ballot. Vice President Vance adds Hendersonville, N.C., on Monday. That itinerary tells you where Republicans are worried. Cook moved Kansas to toss-up, and Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932.
**Wednesday is stacked.**Michigan Senate (Rogers vs. El-Sayed, round two, WXYZ in Detroit, 7 p.m. ET); Kansas Senate (Marshall vs. Hamilton, 8 p.m. ET on Nexstar’s Kansas stations); Wisconsin governor (Tiffany vs. Crowley, WISN 12 from Marquette Law); Iowa governor (Lahn vs. Sand, Iowa PBS); and Minnesota governor (Klobuchar vs. Demuth, FOX 9).**Bookends:**Kentucky Senate opens the week Monday night with Andy Barr and Charles Booker’s one and only debate. Connecticut governor and an Arkansas Senate debate Tom Cotton is skipping close it out Thursday.**The lens on the road show:**Trump’s Saturday stop in Macon falls on Georgia’s last Saturday of early voting, and Sunday’s Michigan stop comes one day after Michigan opens early voting. The calendar was built around the ballots.**The lens:**Rogers–El-Sayed is the one to watch. After a week of questions about El-Sayed’s associations, this is Rogers’ last big audience in the Detroit market to make the case. In Kansas, Marshall gets a presidential rally Monday and the debate stage Wednesday. If he can’t pull away with both, Kansas is a real race.
3. The Fed goes dark, and the hike odds collapse.
Here’s the odd part. September CPI ran 3.7% year over year, and Thursday’s PPI jumped 1.3% in a month and 6.3% from a year ago, the hottest producer-price print in more than four years. Yet the hotter the numbers got, the lower the hike odds went. CME FedWatch had an October hike at about 44% after CPI and 27.7% after PPI. Then it fell to 16.1% Friday after Kevin Warsh gave no signal. A hold is now priced at 83.9%. The blackout began Saturday, so no one on the committee will talk the market back before the October 27–28 meeting.
**The bond market read:**The 10-year closed Friday at 5.09%, down from 5.24% a week earlier. Traders are betting Warsh won’t hike six days before an election. They aren’t betting inflation is fixed.**Earnings fill the silence:**Netflix Tuesday after the close; Tesla, Meta, and IBM Wednesday after the close; Procter & Gamble and Lockheed Martin Thursday morning. P&G tells you whether households are still eating price increases. Tesla and Meta tell you whether the AI trade is still holding up the market.**The defense names matter more than usual:**RTX and Northrop Grumman report Tuesday, Lockheed Thursday. With a war on and interceptor and Tomahawk stockpiles drawn down, their order books and production guidance are a national-security story, not just a stock story.**The politics:**The decision lands Wednesday the 28th, six days before Election Day. Every number this week is an argument for or against hiking into a midterm.
Monday, October 19
**🗳️ EARLY VOTING:**Opens in Texas (through October 30), South Carolina, Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, and Alaska. Registration closes in Pennsylvania and Alabama, among others.**🇺🇸 TRUMP:**Midterm rally for Sen. Roger Marshall at Heartland Credit Union Arena in Park City, just outside Wichita. Doors 2:30 p.m. CT; the president speaks around 6 p.m. CT (7 ET).**🇺🇸 VANCE:**Rally in Hendersonville, N.C. Doors 11 a.m.; the vice president speaks around 1:15 p.m. ET.**🎤 DEBATE:**Kentucky Senate — Andy Barr vs. Charles Booker, 7 p.m. ET, WKYT and Gray stations with the League of Women Voters of Kentucky. Booker wanted six debates; Barr agreed to this one.**🏛️ HILL:**Senate pro forma at 9 a.m., House pro forma at 10 a.m. No business.**🎙️ SENATE PROJECT:Sens. Katie Britt and Peter Welch talk bipartisanship with Martha MacCallum at the Kennedy Institute in Boston, 11 a.m. ET, streaming and on FOX Nation.⚖️ SCOTUS:Order list at 9:30 a.m. ET from Friday’s conference.⚾ ALCS GAME 6 (if necessary):**Guardians at Rays, Tropicana Field, 5 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV). The series is tied 2-2, with Game 5 tonight in Cleveland at 5:08 p.m. ET.**🏈 MNF:**Commanders at 49ers, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC). The Niners are 5-0.
Tuesday, October 20
**🗳️ EARLY VOTING:**Wisconsin in-person absentee voting begins, along with Louisiana, Missouri, Utah, and Hawaii. North Carolina’s mail-ballot request deadline.**🇺🇸 TRUMP:**Rally at Pitt-Greenville Airport in Greenville, N.C., for Michael Whatley against Roy Cooper. Doors 3:30 p.m.; the president speaks at 7 p.m. ET.**📊 DATA:**September housing starts and building permits, 8:30 a.m. ET; pending home sales, 10 a.m.; BLS state employment, 10 a.m.**💵 EARNINGS:**Before the open — GM, GE Aerospace, RTX, Northrop Grumman, 3M, Hasbro. After the close — Netflix (results about 4:01 p.m. ET, video interview 4:45), Capital One, United Airlines, Intuitive Surgical.**🎤 DEBATES:**Rhode Island governor, 7 p.m. ET (WPRI); Illinois Senate forum, Stratton vs. Tracy, 8 p.m. CT (WTTW).**🏀 NBA OPENING NIGHT:Celtics at Pistons, 3 p.m. ET; LeBron’s Sixers debut at the Knicks’ banner night, 7 p.m.; Thunder at Spurs, 9:30 p.m. All on NBC/Peacock.⚾ ALCS GAME 7 (if necessary):**Guardians at Rays, Tropicana Field, 8 p.m. ET (TBS). The winner gets Milwaukee.**📺 STREAM:**Phony (Hulu); Cyberpunk: Edgerunners season 2 (Netflix).
Wednesday, October 21
**🇺🇸 TRUMP:**Rally in Clemson, S.C., at T. Ed Garrison Arena, 7 p.m. ET.**🎤 DEBATE NIGHT:**Michigan Senate, Rogers vs. El-Sayed, 7 p.m. ET (WXYZ, Detroit); Kansas Senate, Marshall vs. Hamilton, 7–8 p.m. CT (8 ET), from the FOX4 studios in Kansas City, on Nexstar’s Kansas stations with excerpts on NewsNation; Wisconsin governor, Tiffany vs. Crowley, 7–8 p.m. CT (8 ET), WISN 12 from Marquette Law’s Lubar Center; Iowa governor, 7 p.m. CT (Iowa PBS); Minnesota governor, Klobuchar vs. Demuth, 7 p.m. CT (8 ET), with FOX 9 coverage starting at 6:30 p.m. CT.**💵 EARNINGS:**Before the open — AT&T, Abbott, NextEra, Elevance, CME. After the close — Tesla (call 5:30 p.m. ET), Meta (call 4:30 p.m. ET), IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research.**🏦 BONDS:**Treasury reopens the 20-year bond, which closed Friday at 5.47%. With long yields this high, a sloppy auction is a market event.**🗳️ BALLOTS:**West Virginia opens early voting.**📺 STREAM:**The Terminal List season 2 (Prime Video).
Thursday, October 22
**🇺🇸 TRUMP:**Rally in Sioux City, Iowa, 6 p.m. CT (7 ET).**📊 DATA:**Weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. ET; Conference Board leading indicators, 10 a.m.; Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage rates.**💵 EARNINGS:Procter & Gamble (call 8:30 a.m. ET) and Lockheed Martin before the open, plus Comcast, Blackstone, American Airlines, and Dow.⚖️ COURTS:**A federal magistrate judge in Florida holds a discovery hearing in Trump’s $10 billion suit against the BBC. The BBC wants the president ordered to sit for a deposition after his lawyers canceled the October 16 date.**🎤 DEBATES:**Connecticut governor, Lamont vs. Fazio, 7 p.m. ET (WFSB/CT Insider); Arkansas Senate, Democrat Hallie Shoffner vs. Libertarian Jeff Wadlin, 6 p.m. CT (7 ET) on ASU-TV. Tom Cotton is skipping it, and his Salem Media debate was canceled.**🗳️ BALLOTS:**Early voting opens in Maryland and Delaware. Mail-ballot request deadline in Florida and Indiana.**🏦 BONDS:**5-year TIPS reopening.**🏛️ HILL:**Senate pro forma, 9 a.m.**🏈 TNF:**Patriots at Bears, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video).**📺 STREAM:**Nobody Wants This season 3 (Netflix).
Friday, October 23
**🇺🇸 TRUMP:Rally in Fort Myers, Fla., at FGCU’s Alico Arena, 2 p.m. ET.⚾ WORLD SERIES GAME 1:**The ALCS winner at the Brewers, 8 p.m. ET, American Family Field in Milwaukee (FOX).**🍑 GEORGIA:**Last day to request an absentee ballot. Texas, Arizona, Virginia, and South Carolina hit their mail-ballot request deadlines too.**📊 DATA:**Final October University of Michigan consumer sentiment, 10 a.m. ET. Watch the inflation-expectations line.**💵 EARNINGS:**American Express and SLB before the open.**🎬 MOVIES:**DC’s Clayface (Warner Bros.), Laika’s Wildwood, Klara and the Sun with Jenna Ortega (Sony), and Sacha Baron Cohen’s Ali G: Who Iz I? (Amazon MGM).**🏈 CFB FRIDAY:**Duke at Virginia, 7 p.m. ET (ESPN).**📺 STREAM:**Lupin returns (Netflix).
Saturday, October 24
**🍑 GEORGIA:**Second and final mandatory Saturday of early voting, statewide.**🇺🇸 TRUMP:**Rally in Macon, Ga., 7 p.m. ET.**🗳️ BALLOTS:Florida’s mandatory early-voting period begins (through October 31; some counties start as early as the 19th). Michigan, New Jersey, and New York open early voting. New York’s registration deadline.⚾ WORLD SERIES GAME 2:**In Milwaukee, on FOX.**🏈 CFB:**Indiana at Michigan, noon ET (FOX); LSU at Auburn, noon (ABC or ESPN); Pitt at Miami, noon; Texas A&M at Alabama, 3:30 (ABC); Tennessee at South Carolina, 3:30; Boston College at Georgia Tech, 3:30 (ACCN); Ole Miss at Texas, 7:30 (ABC); USC at Wisconsin, 7:30 (NBC/Peacock); Virginia Tech at Clemson, 7 or 7:30. Georgia is off.
Sunday, October 25
**🇧🇷 BRAZIL:**Presidential runoff — Flávio Bolsonaro vs. Lula. Polls are open 8 a.m.–5 p.m. Brasília time (7 a.m.–4 p.m. ET). Flávio led the first round 47% to 45.1%, and the latest polls have him narrowly ahead. A win would put another Trump-friendly government in charge of Latin America’s largest country.**🇺🇸 TRUMP:**Rally in St. Clair County, Mich., 3 p.m. ET.**🌍 ALSO VOTING:**Bulgaria (president) and Serbia (snap parliamentary). Israel votes two days later, Tuesday the 27th.**🏈 NFL WEEK 7:Steelers vs. Saints from Paris (Stade de France), 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network); 49ers at Falcons, 1 p.m. (FOX); Bengals at Ravens, 1 p.m. (CBS); Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday Night Football, 8:20 p.m. (NBC).⚾ WORLD SERIES:**Travel day. Game 3 is Monday.**📬 THE WEEK AHEAD:**Back in your inbox at 4 p.m.
The main story: Earnings season’s biggest week so far collides with an inflation scare. CPI at 3.7% and a 6.3% PPI say energy costs are spreading into everything else. This week, America’s biggest companies tell us whether that’s showing up in their margins, their pricing, and their hiring. P&G and AT&T are the consumer read; Netflix, Tesla, Meta, and IBM are the AI-and-growth read; RTX, Northrop, and Lockheed are the war read.
The Fed: Blackout through the October 28 decision. The odds of an October hike went from about 44% after CPI to 27.7% after PPI to 16.1% Friday, after Warsh gave no signal. A hold is priced at 83.9%. The market has decided Warsh won’t hike six days before an election, so the pressure moves to December. If he surprises anyone on the 28th, it will be the biggest political story of the final week.
Data docket: Monday — nothing major. Tuesday — housing starts, permits, pending home sales. Wednesday — 20-year auction. Thursday — jobless claims, leading indicators, 5-year TIPS. Freddie Mac mortgage rates Thursday too. Friday — final Michigan sentiment. The heavy stuff lands next week: durable goods, new home sales, and consumer confidence Tuesday the 27th; the Fed Wednesday; Q3 GDP and September PCE Thursday the 29th.
Wildcard: Oil and Hormuz. Crude was near $104 on Thursday, and Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz are at their highest level of the war — 15 attacks between October 6 and 14 by UKMTO’s count. The president has said he won’t strike Iran before Election Day. Add mortgage rates stuck at 7.40% on the 30-year (6.71% on the 15-year) in Freddie Mac’s October 15 survey, a 10-year Treasury at 5.09%, and the Russian diesel deal Republicans keep running from, and affordability is still the whole midterm.
**Congress is gone.**Pro forma sessions only — Senate Monday and Thursday at 9 a.m., House Monday at 10 a.m. The Senate comes back for business Monday, November 9, at 3 p.m., with a 5:30 p.m. cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 2347, the vehicle for permitting reform.**The December cliff:**The stopgap the president signed September 2 (H.R. 6500) funds the government through December 11. Whoever wins November 3 decides how the lame duck handles it.**Supreme Court:**A quiet week — no arguments and no conference. The November sitting opens November 2 with Maxwell v. Dinis and Younge v. Fulton Judicial Circuit District Attorney’s Office, then St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy on the 3rd. The next conference is November 6. Pending emergency applications to watch: K.M.K. v. Washington Interscholastic Activities Association (transgender athletes in girls’ sports), Trump v. Kingdom (federal prison policy on care for transgender inmates), and Louisiana v. Devon Energy.**Trump v. BBC:**Thursday’s discovery hearing in Florida is the first test of whether the president can bring a $10 billion lawsuit and then avoid sitting for a deposition until January.**Nidal Hasan:**The White House canceled the livestream of the Fort Hood shooter’s December 3 execution after bipartisan backlash. The open question is still whether his lawyers file a federal habeas petition, which could push the date back.**Election mechanics:**Mail-ballot request deadlines pile up — North Carolina Tuesday; Missouri Wednesday; Florida and Indiana Thursday; Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Virginia, and South Carolina Friday; New York and Tennessee Saturday. Georgia early voting runs through October 30.**Debate math:**Still no Paxton–Talarico debate in Texas and no Cooper–Whatley debate in North Carolina. Barr gives Booker exactly one. Cotton skips his, and his Salem Media debate was…
