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On Sunday — while us normies were enjoying the long Labor Day weekend — the Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to un-block its efforts to revamp the mail-in balloting process ahead of the midterms.
This latest appeal is the final act — we believe — of President Trump’s long-runing efforts to restrict mail-in balloting, a quest that began following his 2020 loss.
“[This] is the whole enchilada,” Votebeat managing editor told me of the expected Court ruling in a Substack Live on Tuesday.
Nathaniel suggested that we could have a decision by next week from the Court. Both sides need to file their briefs to the Court by the end of day on Wednesday.
He also said that the decision would likely fall into one of three buckets:
The Court rules Trump’s executive order for the U.S. Postal Service to establish a database of who is (and who isn’t) eligible to vote by mail is unconstitutional — on the grounds that elections are the purview of states.
The Court decides Trump’s order on mail-in balloting can immediately go into effect — setting off a mad scramble by election administrators to comply with the new rule between now and November 3.
The Court says that Trump is right on the merits but that the timing — the election is 56 days away — make its logistically impossible to make the changes to mail-in balloting for 2026, and that the Postal Service can begin the process of instituting the changes in 2027.
Nathaniel and I talked through the implications of each of those options — and the likelihood of the Court choosing them.
We also broke down:
📜 The history of mail-in voting
🗳️🔒 Why mail-in ballot fraud isn’t as easy as you might think
🌪️ The Missouri debacle
👀 Secretary of State races to watch
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