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Whether there is a ceasefire in Iran depends on your definition of ceasefire. Right now, the major strikes have slowed — but Kelly Magsamen, former Chief of Staff to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Iran lead at the Bush and Obama NSCs, says there is still “confusion among both sides about what they actually agreed to and did not agree to.” She warns that if this is going to become anything more than a brief pause, it has to turn into real diplomacy — because “this is not a drive-by, one-day meeting … that’s going to resolve many of these core issues.”
In this interview, we talk through where the ceasefire actually stands, the biggest dangers if it breaks down, the stakes around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear material, what has surprised her about Iran’s strategy, and what the US has — and has not — achieved so far. Her bottom line: “This is probably the most dangerous period of time that we’re about to enter.”
Watch our conversation here:
In today’s newsletter: They announced a ceasefire, then kept firing. Vance will lead Iran talks with no deal in sight. On enrichment, both sides say the other is lying. The Strait of Hormuz may now have a cover charge. A very convenient $950 million bet. The 25th Amendment chorus grows louder. ICE’s next target: international airports. Bondi is skipping the questioning. Lawmakers aren’t letting it go. The blue trend line is holding. Big news on telehealth abortion. Trump’s administration wants health data on millions. And Artemis II, around the far side and almost home.
Ceasefire, not Says Fire: The US and Iran on Tuesday entered a fragile two-week ceasefire, but it’s not yet holding. The core problem: The partiesdo not appear to agreeon what, exactly, the deal covers.Iran violated the terms within hours, launching one of its most intense waves yetof dronesand missilesat Kuwait, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia Wednesday morning. Iran and Pakistan, which brokered the deal,said the ceasefire includes Lebanon. Israel and the US say it does not, and on Wednesday Israellaunched its largest strike there, killing over 250 people. Iranappears to have closedthe Strait of Hormuz.Iran says the US and Israel, in part with the ongoing attacks in Lebanon.violated the agreementIran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchidemanded the US pressureIsrael to stop those strikes or face “continued war,” adding “the ball is in the US court.” White House Press Secretary Leavitttold reportersLebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement andsaid the president hasan “expectation and demand that the Strait of Hormuz is re-opened immediately, quickly and safely.” Speaking on CNN, former Middle East and North Africa coordinator Brett McGurk said this is not a true ceasefire: “Ceasefires are kind of like Humpty Dumpty and once they crack it’s very hard to put them back together.” He added that the most important part is the very beginning and warned**we are headed “in the wrong direction.”**I spoke with Kelly Magnasen (above) who explains that the lack of clear communication between the US and Iran makes this ceasefire especially fragile — and that all sides will need ongoing talks for the war to truly resolve.**Talk to Me:**Vice President Vance isheaded to Islamabad this weekendto join Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, and senior Iranian officials — including the Speaker of Parliament and Foreign Minister — for direct talks. Negotiations like these rarely succeed without pre-determined agreements already in place. That’s not the case here.
Radioactive: Trumpclaimed the US and Iran will coordinateto “dig up and remove” Iran’s enriched uraniumand said there willbe “no enrichment” going forward. But aFarsi-language versionof Iran’s 10-point-plan includes the phrase “acceptance of enrichment.” Trumpclaims Iran publicly releaseda different set of 10 points than the ones actually under negotiation and Press Secretary Leavittinsisted that whatTehran is saying publicly “is very different from what they say privately.” The real: Neither side has a strong track record of transparency.Bell Tolls: Iran wants to charge ships $2 million to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, eventuallysharing the revenue with Oman, which lies on the other side of the crucial waterway. A toll like this would be unprecedented in modern history. There arereports at least one shiphas already paid up. Trump, when asked about Iran’s toll plans on Wednesday,said that“we’re thinking of doing it as a joint venture. It’s a way of securing it — also securing it from lots of other people. It’s a beautiful thing.” Trumpalso saidthe US will stay “hangin’ around” the Strait throughout the ceasefire to help “with the traffic buildup” there. “Big money will be made,” he wrote. We’ll see who gets that money.Don’t Hold Your Gas:Oil prices fell and stocks roseWednesday, following the ceasefire. That doesn’t mean consumer prices will come down anytime soon, though. It willtake time torestore oil production, repair damaged facilities, and bring global transportation back to pre-war levels. That’s assuming peace holds, which is far from certain. Multiple market experts warned US gas and airline ticket prices willremain highthrough the summer thanks to continued uncertainty. “Prices go up like a rocket,”one analyst said, “and they fall like a feather.”Inside the Trade:Suspiciously savvy investors placeda massive $950 million bet on oil prices falling hours before the ceasefire was announced. How lucky!
Serious Threats: Hours before the ceasefire, Trumpwarned that“a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.” Experts andretired military officerssay his threatscould be evidenceof intent to commit war crimes, or evenamount to war crimes in themselves. Lawmakersurged military officialstoignore what they calledillegal orders. One retired generalon Tuesday claimed**CENTCOM had “rejected” various “civilian targets”**that were “recommended by the Secretary of Defense.”Growing Chorus: Dozens of Democrats and several prominent MAGA figures havecalled for Congress to remove Trumpvia the 25th Amendment. Former Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene𝕏called Trump’s threats“evil and madness.” Tucker Carlson on Mondayimplied Trump could be the antichrist, arguing his threat against Iran was a “war crime” and a “moral crime.” (Trumpresponded by callingCarlson “a low-IQ person” who he didn’t “deal with” anymore.) Rep. John Larson (D-CT) on Tuesdayfiled articles of impeachmentagainst Trump. Rep. Yassamin Ansari (D-AZ) said Monday she ispreparing to do the samefor Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.
Against Sanctuary: New DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin this weekaccused sanctuary citiesof being “not lawful.” Hesuggested punishing thembyremoving customs agents from their international airports, which would shut down international travel to cities like Los Angeles, New York and Chicago. (Find the list ofsanctuary cities here. There are hundreds.) “Sanctuary”isn’t a legal conceptbut rather a political term referring to local governments that limit their cooperation with federal immigration authorities. They’ve existed formore than four decades,survived legal challenges, andstudies showthat counties with sanctuary policies have lower crime rates.Car Mad: The facts of this case depend entirely on whom you ask. ICE agents on Tuesdayshot and injureda man during a traffic stop in Patterson, California. ICE Acting DirectorTodd Lyons claimedthat agents fired “defensive shots” at Carlos Ivan Mendoza Hernandez after he “weaponized his vehicle.” Hernandez’s attorneycounteredthat he’d “tried to flee” the situation “in a moment of fear.” Dashcam▶footageshows the car pinned in by two vehicles. It backs away from agents, some of whom appear to have their guns drawn, then pulls forward, turns away from the agents and drives off. Hernandez’sattorney saidhe is a “loving father and partner” who is “fighting for his life” in the hospital. DHS has faced scrutiny formaking false claimsabout agent-involved shootings, includingAlex Pretti,Renee Nicole Good, andJulio Sosa-Celis. Atleast eight peoplehave been shot by ICE agents this year. At least 46 havedied in detention facilitiessince the start of the second Trump administration, more than in decades.**Women and Children:**ICE on Tuesdayreleased a 22-year-old womanafter detaining her days after she married a US soldier. After celebrating their wedding, Annie Ramos and Matthew Blank, a US army sergeant, arrived at Blank’s Louisiana army base to begin their new life. Hours later ICE agents showed up and detained Ramos — somethingtypically not doneto spouses of US citizens nor immigrants brought here as kids. Family memberssay the agents apologizedand “said the higher-ups made them do it.” Ramos wasbrought to the US from Hondurasas a child andreceived a deportation orderat 22 months old after her family failed to appear at immigration court. She is a college student withno criminal record; hasapplied for DACA, but the Trump administration stopped processing new applicants; and she and her new husbandhired a lawyerto sort it out. Though Ramos has been released, ICE is[still trying to dep…
