On Tuesday afternoon, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries did an interview with CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.
While the whole thing is worth your time, one exchange stood out to me.
Here it is:
BLITZER: If you become the leader or the Democrats, become the majority in the House, are you open to pursuing impeachment of President Trump, or are you ruling that out?JEFFRIES: But we've made clear we haven't ruled anything in, and we haven't ruled anything out. And, certainly, as I've indicated, Jamie Raskin and House Judiciary Committee Democrats, I was a proud member of the House Judiciary Committee for ten years, as well as Robert Garcia and Democrats on the Oversight Committee are going to take the lead.
And as we've done in the past, whenever there have been moments of accountability that we've had to lead on, we are guided by three principles, follow the facts, apply the law, and be guided by the United States Constitution.
“We haven’t ruled anything in, and we haven’t ruled anything out.”
Look, I get why Jeffries, who very much wants to be Speaker of the House if Democrats win back the majority in 69 days, has to give this answer on impeachment.
To pre-judge it — either way — would cause trouble.
If Jeffries says “yes we are going to impeach President Trump if Democrats get back the majority,” then Republicans spend the entire fall campaign insisting that the other party has no agenda other than hating Trump.
If Jeffries tells Wolf that Democrats won’t impeach Trump if they retake the majority, the liberal left goes insane — and, even if Democrats DO win the House majority, Jeffries might not have the votes within his own caucus to be elected Speaker.
Right? Right!
But if you are a Democrats who would like to win the White House in 2028, you had better hope that Jeffries knows — and will act on — this simple idea: A House Democratic majority impeaching Trump again would be a total and complete political disaster.
Let me explain.
I want to start — somewhat oddly — by making the case FOR impeachment. Because I do think it’s worth exploring that before I argue why Democrats would be politically obtuse to pursue such a course.
The “for” arguments tend to take two forms:
More people — not just Democrats — support impeaching Trump than you think!
It’s the morally right thing to do — so damn the politics!
On the first argument, there is very little polling on which to draw conclusions either way.
The best data I could find that supports the point comes from and his Substack.
Back in June, Elliott did a poll with Verasight that showed a majority of Americans believed there is either “definitely” or “probably” grounds to impeach Trump.
Here’s that data in chart form:
Now, I will note here that believing there are “grounds” to impeach Trump is not the same thing as saying that the U.S. House should impeach the president.
That said, Elliott then asked people who thought there were grounds to impeach Trump what, specifically, those grounds were. Which produced this chart:
Aside from that poll, there’s just not much credible data out there on this question. (No, there is not a CNN poll that shows 75% of the public support impeachment. Fake news!)
So, yes, there is a poll that shows a majority of people believe there is “probably” enough out there to impeach Trump. But, man, that is pretty thin gruel on which to hang an impeachment vote in 2027 backed by the newly-elected Democratic House leadership!
The second argument for impeachment is a tougher nut to crack. If you are convinced that Trump has done things in office — whether that’s enriching himself and his family, the vast expansion of ICE, the war in Iran, politicizing the Department of Justice, etc. — that merit impeachment, I am not going to find the words in this post (or *any *post) to change your mind.
And I understand that there are plenty of people out there who aren’t just blind Trump haters who feel this way. I truly do.
But here’s the thing: Over the years, Democrats have gotten really good at congratulating themselves for claiming the moral high ground while losing actual elections.
The reality: If you don’t win, you don’t get to do ANYTHING you want. In fact, you usually have to sit back and watch as the other sides does whatever they want.
This sort of brass-tacks approach to the presidency, public life and politics won’t sit well with some (many?) of you. Because it’s an appeal to raw power — that the only way you can really accomplish your agenda is to do whatever it takes to win. Even if that “whatever it takes” makes you morally uneasy.
But, history suggests it’s how politics works.
Here’s the issue if you are a Democrat today: You have a brand problem. While Trump’s numbers have collapsed (and along with them the broader GOP brand), the numbers for Democrats haven’t gotten any better.
Here’s a 𝕏word cloud from a recent poll by my friends at Echelon Insights about the first word that comes to mind when they hear the words “Democratic Party” (the larger the word below, the more people mentioned it):
Not good! There’s a lot of “socialist” in there. And “corruption.” “Weak.” “Liberal.”
The truth is that Democrats are positioned to have a very good 2026 election in spite of themselves. They are simply the other option in a binary choice where a majority of voters appear to have decided they don’t want "option A” aka Trump/Republicans.
This midterm is a referendum on Trump and his economic policies. To the extent voters are even considering Democrats in that equation, it is to think that the party’s policies on the economy can’t be worse than what Trump and Republicans have done for the last two years.
If you think there is a single swing voter who goes into the ballot box this fall and pulls the lever for Democrats so that they will impeach Trump in 2027, you are fooling yourself.
What most non-base Democrats believe they know about the party right now is that it HATES Trump. With the white-hot passion of 1,000 suns.
But, here’s the thing: Trump isn’t going to be on the 2028 ballot. (Note: Could he try to kind of, sort of run for president again? I suppose so! But the 22nd Amendment seems pretty clear to me.) And he certainly isn’t going to be president in 2029.
What voters outside of the most rabid wing of the Democratic party want to know is what Democrats would do if they win back the White House. Hating Trump doesn’t lower gas prices. Or make groceries more affordable. Or tackle the myriad challenges posed by the rise of AI.
Now consider House Democrats impeaching Trump in 2027. What message does that send to the voters outside of the base? That Democrats are still totally obsessed with Trump.
If I was Hakeem Jeffries, I would spend ALL of my time as the new Speaker rallying the House Democratic majority to back legislation laser-focused on bringing down prices on everyday goods. Talk about addressing the affordability crisis relentlessly.
Will these measures become law? Almost certainly not — as Trump will veto them even if Democrats manage to also win the Senate majority in November.
But House Democrats choosing to spend their time on offering their own solutions on the most pressing issues of the day is WAY smarter politically than trying to impeach Trump for a third time.
Two other thoughts on this whole thing.
First, impeaching Trump again will play right into his hands. Trump is strongest politically when he gets to play the victim of a crazed opposition. We know this. Need I remind folks of how the four indictments against Trump were going to ensure he could never run for president in 2024? Yeah.
Second, Trump is NEVER going to be removed from office in a third impeachment trial.
Remember that even after his role in the January 6, 2021 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, only 59 Senators voted to find him guilty! And that was with Democrats holding 52 Senate seats! Of the seven Republican Senators who joined Democrats to convict, only one — Alaska’s Lisa Murkowski — is guaranteed to be in the Senate in 2027!
Consider this: Democrats have an AMAZING night on November 3 and pick up six seats. They would control 53 seats at the start of the 120th Congress. Which means that they would need 14 Republican Senators to cross the aisle and find Trump guilty in order to remove him from the White House.
There’s just NO way.
Which means that even if Democrats have the numbers to impeach Trump in the House, it’s a dead end in the Senate. Again.
Charging at windmills might make for good novels — and might make the extreme elements of the Democratic base happy — but it is NOT a recipe for rehabbing the party’s brand in support of winning back the White House in 2028.
Democrats better hope like hell that Hakeem Jeffries knows that.
