Morning all. A reminder that in the home stretch we will be going live each week day around 1pm ET with a candidate or party leader on the front lines. To see our upcoming schedule check our Events page, and of course we will be promoting our events each day here and in our new Ad and Video Roundup. Today one our very best candidates of the cycle, Bob Brooks (PA-7), drops by at 1pm ET to give us an update on his critical battleground race. Join us! It will be a good one……
Last night the proud, plucky patriots of this remarkable community gathered for our weekly get together. It was a lively affair, as they often are. Here is some of what we talked about…..
**There Will Be A Blue Wave This Year. The Question Now Is How Big Will It Be - **September of the even year is crunch time. Candidates and party committees come back from the August recess and poll to understand where things stand in as enter the home stretch. Since Labor Day there has been a lot of polling, both public and private. What it has found is that Trump is continuing to erode and decline, the battlefield for the Rs keeps deteriorating, we are now very competitive deep into red places and red states, and we have a very strong chance of flipping both the House and Senate, and making significant downballot gains across the country.
As I said last night Republicans went away for the August recess believing their financial advantage would allow them to survive the wave. Now they are not so sure given how much worse things have gotten. And things have gotten worse, a lot worse. I did a deep dive in yesterdays post, The Republican Freak Out Is Here, on the data we were seeing. Head there for a comprehensive look at what we are seeing now. Here are a few bits of new data and some updates…..
For an example of worse here are the results of a new poll by a respected Republican pollster, Echelon. Trump dropped 5 points in the last month in this poll, and now stands, as he does in almost every other poll released in recent days, at his lowest point of the second term and in many cases his lowest point ever:
In the last week Trump has dropped 3 points in the FiftyPlusOne’s job approval aggregate. And look at the trendlines. Nasty stuff for the old orange guy:
The generic ballot has also gotten much better for us and worse for them. In FiftyplusOne it’s gone from +6 Dem to +8 in recent weeks, and we are now regularly seeing double digit Dem leads, which is big blue wave territory.
In a new analysis released this morning called * No president has gone into a midterm election this unpopular. Not even George W. Bush in 2006* the team at FiftyPlusOne write:
Our historical polling averages show the president’s updated rating is worse than George W. Bush’s second-term approval rating on the eve of the 2006 midterm that cost Republicans both chambers of Congress. And public mood is approaching where it was toward Richard Nixon during Watergate, in the months before he resigned in disgrace.
The NYT released polls in four states this morning. First up is Pennsylvania where Governor Josh Shapiro leads 58%-38% (+20), and we lead by 9 in the generic ballot, 53%-44%. These margins mean that all four House seats we are working to flip in Pennsylvania are within reach, and just flipping these four seats flips the House. Note that as Trump won PA by 2 points in 2024 this poll is showing an 11 point shift towards us right now. That’s a very big number.
The Times also released polls in Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire:
The MI and NH results are consistent with where folks on our side believe these races are. The Maine result is a bit of an outlier, something the NYT discusses here. I am not panicking about Maine. Jackson leads in all other polls, and what this polls finds is a very close race. Yes it’s clear that our work in Maine, a state we’ve played very hard in this cycle, is not done. I still think the wave that is coming for Republicans all across the country will come for Susan Collins but this result is a reminder that we cannot take anything for granted.
Since publishing this morning a new UMass/YouGov poll was released showing Jackson up 5, inline with other recent public polls:
These results also suggest that here at Hopium we are right to remain focused on the six Senate flips - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). Winning all six of these races, assuming we hold GA, MI, and NH, gets us to 53 in the Senate. Given that Fetterman could switch parties, and that one of these candidates may not make it - as we are seeing with Jackson - I think winning these six Senate seats has become the highest priority for the party, and for us here at Hopium too.
As we discussed last night we need this election to have one clear story - that the American people rose up in records numbers and rejected this terrible man and his terrible, illiberal politics. Telling that story gets much harder if they manage to keep the Senate, even at 50-50. So Job One now for all of us to win these six Senate seats.
Two bits of good news on that front. This morning we are getting reports that the Republicans are pulling out of North Carolina, essentially ceding the race to Roy Cooper. These reports also suggest they are pulling out of Georgia, conceding that race to Jon Ossoff. It’s a sign of how much the battlefield has deteriorated for them, for this means that Republicans are no longer competitive in states Trump won just two years ago, a remarkable thing to see six weeks before Election Day.
We’ve also gotten very encouraging polling in four high quality polls in AK, IA, and TX in recent days:
A few more notes from last night….
…….Part of what is driving my optimism right now is just how strong our candidates are, and our party’s embrace of what I call a raucous pluralism this cycle. We’ve met all the top candidates. They are a remarkable bunch, admirable, proven servant-leaders, meeting the moment and fitting their districts and states. Our diversity has become a great strength this cycle, particularly as we work to win in places that we have not been winning in for many, many years.
…….The huge swing of Hispanics voters back to the Democratic Party is very important for this election and beyond. There is a scenario that we could end up with Hispanic Democrats as governors of both California and Texas, an historic achievement that could become very consequential to the electoral map and Hispanic political power in a time when the government has launched an all-out assault on immigrant communities across the country.
……Stay focused, calm, and determined. Do not get blown off course. Do not seek things to worry about. As we say here do more and worry less. We are in a position to have the election we all want to have here. A wave is coming. How big it is will be in part up to us and how hard we work and how much money we give in the closing weeks of the campaign.
…..Yes we should expect Trump and the Rs to do whatever it takes to remain in power, but two points here 1) Democrats have built an unprecedented operation to challenge Trump’s potential fuckery, including our work in standing up the New Battlefield Project with the state parties 2) we have the opportunity in the coming days to drive a very powerful contrast between our embrace of democracy, of celebrating our rights and freedoms, of encouraging everyone to vote and to vote early, and their betrayal of it all. If Trump does make a serious attempt to disrupt the elections or the peaceful transfer of power I think it will do grave and lasting damage to him and the Republican Party itself. No one will believe him. He no longer has standing with the public to mount such an effort, which I think will make it very, very hard for him to be successful. We should not fear what Trump may do as we are prepared, and it may take away whatever is left of his legitimacy as our leader.
……His escalating madness, his turning of Washington into a monument to him and not our great nation, his ongoing desire to be a dictator not a President is also going to further degrade him as we get closer to Election Day. This morning the three media orgs barred by Trump from the White House were not allowed in despite a court order. This stuff is going to further degrade him in the eyes of voters:
…..And yes, we will need to mount a major messaging effort to take away the legitimacy of the MAGA project after this blow out election. It will not be enough for them to lose. We must discredit the entire MAGA project in the coming months. More on that in the coming days….
That’s some of what we discussed last night. Watch the video and share this analysis with others. Hit like so more will see it, and yes, my friends, it is that time….
Three things you can do in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, and organizations.Sign up to become a
Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is this Wednesday, Sept 30th at 8pm ET.Email photos of your electoral work or physical act of voting to community@hopiumchronicles.com or via links on our daily chat. We want to start showcasing them here on Hopium.
Here is a great shot of GOTV postcards Gail G is working on now…..
**Our Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,367,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers is most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to spend and contest). If we win these twelve races the House flips - period.
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22). You can meet all there remarkable candidates by
Our Winning The Senate Fund - $1,057,100 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | This fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
These are the majority makers in the Senate this cycle.
You can watch our interviews with each of these exciting candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here. Our fundraising total includes money we’ve raised directly for each of the six candidates.
**Our New Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $436,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple. We win the House with the first fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48). You can watch interviews and learn more about these great candidates here.
**Our Wining The States Series **- Due to space limitations we’ve moved our state “Winning” series to this new page. Head there to make state specific investments in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin!
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $69,100 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground.
Help Hopium Close Strong - $81,000 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new fundraising drive for Hopium to allow us to expand our programming in these final critical days of the 2026 election and free up a bit of my time to support the State Parties’ Election Protection program. It will allow me to add some additional capacity here and make sure the vital State Party program is successful.
Remarkably my friends we hit our initial goal of $50,000 in just a few days - and have stretched our goal of this targeted fundraising campaign to $100,000. A huge, huge thank you to everyone who has chipped in here - I am humbled and energized by this rousing show of support for Hopium - and am starting the process now of bringing on some additional help for the home stretch.
Here are the ways you can support Hopium today:
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Donate Directly To Hopium* - You can do that
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Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
