Morning all. This has been a very bad week for Trump - betraying Ukraine/Europe/NATO, two horrific inflation reports, the Saudis getting badly bloodied by the Houthis, a comically terrible new press secretary, escalating levels of staff chaos and regime in-fighting, and an election just going to sh-t for him and the Rs. Several more wheels came off the Trumpian bus this week. It is the very opposite of closing strong. And holy shit is it great to see.
Stories about the House being gone, races being moved to the Dems have been all over the national media this week:
Cook has now moved 29 House races towards the Dems in recent days, and this week we got polls showing races Cook sees as “Likely Republican” dead even. The House battlefield - despite all the R spend, their extraordinary propaganda regime, their increasing control over legacy media and aggressive government censorship - keeps eroding as we get closer to Election Day. There are the new Cook rankings:
A new AARP poll of the House battleground confirms this GOP erosion as the generic ballot is +3 Dem, 9 points better than 2024. The Republican pollster in this poll is Tony Fabrizio, Trump’s own pollster:
Two polls released on Wednesday that will be seen widely in Republican audiences had Dems up in the national generic ballot 9 and 11 points - really ugly stuff (Via FiftyPlusOne):
A new poll in bellwether VA-02 has our candidate there Elaine Luria up 3, 46%-43%, in a district she lost by 4 points in 2022:
Luria received 46% support among likely voters in the district, compared with 43% for Kiggans, according to the university’s
[Wason Center poll]. Another 10% were still undecided, and 2% favored another candidate.Kiggans defeated Luria, a former Democratic congresswoman, in 2022. Their rematch is among the races Democrats are targeting as they try to regain control of the U.S. House.
A new Bowling Green State University Bowl in Ohio finds Sherrod Brown and Dr. Amy Acton up 6, Dems with far more intensity to vote, and the generic ballot +4 Dem!!!!!! Trump won Ohio by 13 points in 2024. From the poll summary:
Since the September poll, we find Democrats have increased their leads in both the governor’s race and the U.S. Senate race, but both continue to be competitive. Democrat Amy Acton holds a 6-point edge over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy for governor (50% to 44%) and Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a 6-point lead over Republican Jon Husted in the Senate race (48% to 42%)….
Democrats continue to be more motivated to vote in this election compared to Republicans although the gap has narrowed (59% to 41%). Democrats have also increased their edge when it comes to the generic congressional ballot. Currently, we find respondents would choose Democrats over Republicans by 4 points (49% to 45%) compared to a 1-point margin in the September poll (48% to 47%).
Ohio continues to be one of the great early vote Dem success stories. Look at this remarkable data from TargetEarly. There is a reason Republicans are throwing so much money at Ohio right now:
Be sure to watch my new interview with Sherrod Brown where he talks about the remarkable early vote success Dems are having in Ohio this week.
Republicans are also throwing an incredible amount of money at Iowa. This new clip of a MS Now focus group with Trump 2024 voters in Iowa shows why. These ten Trump 2024 voters are asked whether they are leaning towards Ashley Hinson, the GOP Senate candidate against Josh Turek. Not one of the ten raises their hand. It’s a stunning moment - do watch:
Look at how the Dem grassroots is rallying for our Senate candidates, and providing a powerful counter to the huge spend of Elon, Trump, and the oligarchs (Via Axios). One party is powered by people, the other by oligarchs:
Our friends in North Carolina had a massive first day of early in-person voting yesterday. Here’s Professor Mike McDonald, who tracks the early vote, from a new Substack post, North Carolina First Day of In-Person Early Voting is a Blue Tsunami:
North Carolina held its first day of in-person early voting yesterday.
I’ve been reluctant to make same-day comparisons for other states because the early voting laws have changed or election circumstances have changed.
North Carolina is a party registration state that hasn’t greatly changed its voting laws since 2018, so it is the first state to make confident same-day comparisons as of the first day of in-person early voting.
This is what a massive blue wave looks like.
Here’s the data. It’s just stunning stuff:
Be sure to watch my Monday interview with NC Dem Chair Anderson Clayton who explains all their prep to drive the early vote and to make this remarkable first day happen. Huge kudos to Anderson and the whole NC Democratic Party team today!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As I said in my weekly talk - Trump Is A Traitorous, Venal, F-ck Up. Through Hard Work And Inspiring Candidates We’re On The Cusp Of Having The Election We All Wanted To Have - Now We Need To Finish The Job - now we need to close strong and finish the job people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good luck to everyone working No Kings Early Vote events tomorrow!
And yes, now it’s time to….
Two things you can do today in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates and state parties:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, and organizations.Sign up to become a
Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is this Saturday, Oct 17th at 2pm ET.
To make sure campaigns and state parties can put your contribution to strategic use in these closing days please make all your donations by Sunday, October 25th. Contributions that come after that date are welcome but are harder to use strategically.
Winning The Senate Fund - Donate | $1,464,100 raised, $1,500,000 goal | Watch interviews with these Senate flippers | This fund splits a single donation to our seven candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Adam Hamilton (KS), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
This is the team that is going to flip the Senate people. Note that on 10/9 we expanded this fund to include Adam Hamilton - yes much is possible for us this year!
**Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,609,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’ people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning Alaska - Donate | $25,200 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska campaign splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $71,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $256,100 raised, $300,000 new stretch goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
**Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $626,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A reminder that the maximum that a donor can contribute to any Federal candidate for the general election is $3,500, however that money is donated.
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $57,800 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $105,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $81,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $43,100 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $702,700 raised, $750,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $106,100 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground. Friends - we have hit our goal here - thank you!
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Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country this November, together! - Simon
