Greetings all. Happy Friday. Got a few things for you today…….
Trump continues to be servile and fawning around dictators, as if he is desperate to be admitted to their exclusive and powerful club. Zelenskyy got mauled in the Oval Office. Putin got a red carpet and a tarmac greeting in Alaska last year. China’s Xi also got a red carpet and a tarmac greeting this week:
Here’s a passage from Dr. Phillips O’Brien read on Xi’s visit from his new Substack essay: It’s Not That Xi Insults Trump Once...It’s that the Chinese are actively destroying the US global position while the US president bows and scrapes
Now back to the degradation of the USA, aided and abetted by the American president and being pointed out deliberately by the Chinese president while his American counterpart gets all warm and fuzzy. The Chinese are laughing at the USA, not just about the Thucydides trap (that is just a dig) but they look at the US administration (and sadly the press) pumping out BS narratives while they go about undermining the basis of US global power.
Trumpism = buffoonery, idiocy, and betrayal, 24/7/365. It’s why we need to be doing everything we can to win these midterms and set a new and better course for the nation.
During this fawning state visit of the leader of the Chinese Communist Party Trump not only banned domestic American media from the White House and launched a state sponsored media platform he also started running a blatantly partisan ad paid for by our tax dollars. The ad is illegal. It’s stealing. It’s desperate, and it’s wrong. Here’s the script of the ad, which of course, attacks “communism” while Trump rolled out the red carpet and feted the world’s most important Communist:
Together we will defeat communism, socialism, and Marxism in America. America will never be a communist country. He's the toughest, most resilient person that I've ever met, and nothing was going to stop him from fighting so hard for the country he loves.
No man, no party has deserved to lose more than these corrupt, illiberal, malicious assholes.
I’m now going to spend a little time on some new data and ratings we got this morning. It will be a lot easier to follow along if you’ve read the analysis in my last two posts:
The Cook Report has published a new analysis this morning, GOP on Track to Lose House Majority as 15 Race Ratings Shift Towards Dems (paywall, sorry). It begins:
Despite a push for mid-decade redistricting, a massive reserve of cash, and an unpopular opposition party, Republicans are on track to lose their House majority this November.
Unlike in 2018, the last midterm cycle when Republicans were in power, the most competitive House races are almost entirely in districts that President Donald Trump won. But, in large part due to his handling of the economy, the president is now deeply underwater and is dragging down Republican House members and candidates across these districts.
Democrats currently hold 215 seats, meaning they need to gain just three seats to take back the majority. But the realm of competitive and potentially competitive districts is fairly small. The most likely outcome at this point is that Democrats pick up five to 15 seats, resulting in Democrats holding 220 to 230 seats in 2027 — a fairly slim majority in
[modern U.S. history]. That range could shift further in Democrats’ favor over the next five weeks if Republicans are unable to effectively stem the bleeding.
Below is their updated House rankings. In their forecast we start with 185 seats. Winning the Likely D races gets us to 197. Winning all the Lean Ds gets us to 208. Which means we have to win 10 more from the Toss Ups, Lean Rs, and Likely Rs to get the majority. As you will see our “Stake in the Ground” fund is supporting 11 in the Toss Up category - AZ-6, CA-22, CO-8, IA-1, IA-3, MI-10, NC-11, NY-17, OH-7, PA-08, TX-15. So if we win those 11 districts the House will flip. Period (Names in blue are Dem held seats, names in red GOP held);
Our Grow The House Majority Fund adds this to majority with another 15 possible pick ups from Toss Up to Likely R - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01).
I’ve made our House recommendations based on consultation with party strategists in DC and the states, and my own experience targeting House races over many years. I know this may be a little bit confusing but the bottom line here is that I feel good about the path we’ve chosen and the contribution we’ve made. After the September 30th 3rd quarter filing deadline I may add a few more races to our Grow The House Majority Fund but that core twelve in our Stake in the Ground fund remains the most important place to put our time and money in the home stretch. And to be clear I think these ratings are a bit conservative and that we have a serious chance of going deep into Toss Up to Likely Rs, but we must keep our head down and keep working hard all - for we cannot take anything for granted given how much money they are spending, everywhere.
Yesterday the NYT released polls in three states - ME, MI, NH.
After my post yesterday we got new polls in ME and NH that gave us a bit more data about these races. I’ve put these NYT polls together with these new polls, and added the generic ballot in each state from the NYT. The NYT Maine poll sure looks like an outlier:
Maine
Jackson 48%-43% (+5) - UMass/YouGov
Jackson 51%-47% (+4) - UNH
Collins 49%-46% (+3) - NYTDemocrat 52%-44% (+8) - NYT
**New Hampshire **
Pappas 50%-42% (+8) - UNH
Pappas 50%-45% (+5) - NYT
Democrat 52%-43% (+9) - NYT
Michigan
El-Sayed 49%-44% (+5) - NYT
Democrat 52%-42% (+10) - NYT
Pennsylvania - NYT
Shapiro 58%-38% (+20)
Democrat 52%-43% (+9)
These generic ballots margins are going to make it very, very hard for Republicans to win these any of these three Senate races. Given their financial advantage anything is possible but they are facing a very tough environment in each of these critical battleground states.
This new data also confirms our current strategy of focusing on the six Senate pick ups - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). If we hold GA, MI, NH, and flip these six we get to 53 seats in the Senate, enough to overcome a possible party switch by Fetterman. It’s why we simply must fight to win all six of these races. And what remains remarkable is that we have lead in almost every poll taken in each of these six states in recent weeks. More remarkably we’ve seen polls in all six states with our candidate leading outside the margin of error of the poll - very good news indeed. There are no polls showing a Republican candidate ahead outside the margin of error in any of these six races.
Yesterday the Senate voted down a war powers resolution that would have forced Trump to come to Congress to get approval for his ridiculous war in the Middle East. Only four Republicans voted with the Democrats - Collins (ME), Murkowski (AK), Paul (KY), and Tillis (NC). Remarkably, several incumbents in danger of losing their seats - Husted (OH), Marshall (KS) and Sullivan (AK) - voted with Trump and his war, as did 46 other Republican Senators. It’s incredible that the White House leaned on these candidates this late in the cycle to vote for one of the most unpopular things an American leader has ever done. It’s another sign that Trump just isn’t doing what’s required to for them to win.
Finally, underneath all this we simply cannot forget for one moment that what we are trying to do this cycle is very hard. For the road to the majority runs through red states and red places, and flipping red seats and red states is no easy thing, particularly when we are being badly outspent. Given all this, that we are doing this well, and have a legit opportunity to win both chambers, remains remarkable, affirming, and encouraging, and why now my friends, it is….
Friends, we’ve hit out $100,000 goal for home stretch funds for Hopium and our work. So grateful, so thankful to all of you who have contributed.!!! I am retiring the fund for now and will get back to working hard for our candidates and party committees!
Three things you can do in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates and state parties:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, and organizations.Sign up to become a
Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is this Wednesday, Sept 30th at 8pm ET.Email photos of your electoral work or physical act of voting to community@hopiumchronicles.com or via links on our daily chat. We want to start showcasing them here on Hopium.
**Our Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,367,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to spend and contest). If we win these twelve races the House flips - period.
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22). You can meet all there remarkable candidates by
Our Winning The Senate Fund - $1,064,100 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | This fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
These are the majority makers in the Senate this cycle.
You can watch our interviews with each of these exciting candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here. Our fundraising total includes money we’ve raised directly for each of the six candidates.
**Our New Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $498,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple. We win the House with the first fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48). You can watch interviews and learn more about these great candidates here.
**Our Wining The States Series **- Due to space limitations we’ve moved our state “Winning” series to this new page. Head there to make state specific investments in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin!
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $70,100 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground.
Finally, self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below.
Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
