Here’s what people in the Capital are waking up to this morning. This little beauty is the lead story in the Washington Post today:
In this poll Democrats lead by 8 points among likely voters and 13 among those certain to vote or who have already voted:
A new NBC News poll has Trump at a similar 34%-64% approve/disapprove, and the generic ballot at Dem +10:
With a little more than two weeks to go nothing Trump has done - not his ads, not his campaigning, not his bribes, not his corrupt influence over legacy and social media - has been able to reverse or even stem his precipitous decline. Spent, impotent, weak, desperate he is.
We all know where this election is. We’ve seen it in our overperformances in special elections all across the country these past two years. We’ve seen it our strong performance in the 2025 elections all across the country. We’ve seen it in our incredibly strong primary turnout in state after state throughout 2026. We’ve seen it in our improving voter reg numbers, in national polls and state polls, in our robust candidate fundraising, and in all the data showing the American people putting their faith back in us to make things better and put things right.
Two graphs from our discussions this week are sticking with me this morning. The first is just how much Trump has raised prices on all of us, despite making lowering them the central promise of his 2024 campaign. Inflation has more than doubled due to his ruinous government:
The second is this encouraging graph from recent Gallup polling. People are not just leaving the Rs they are returning to us and identifying as Democrats again:
I’ve written about Meta shutting down the No Kings Instagram account on Bluesky. I will have more on that, and Trump’s treacherous betrayal of America and Ukraine, tomorrow.
While it remains early in the early vote - and we must be patient - we are starting to see states where the vote is looking like what we expected it to look like. What follows is data pulled from the TargetEarly site, using modeled party, compared to 2024 and 2022 on this day.
Indiana. Dems are running 13 points over 2022 now:
Nebraska. Dems are running 11 points over 2022:
New Jersey. Dems are running 9 points over 2022:
North Carolina. Dems are running 21 points over 2022:
If you want inspiration now that No Kings Vote Early has come and gone - great work yesterday everyone! - watch some of our recent discussions with our remarkable candidates and state party leaders who are leading the charge all across the country. We are lucky that so many compelling leaders have decided to run this cycle - it is what gives me hope today more than anything else. You’ve met these candidates and state party leaders. You’ve seen what they are made of. You know that with our help they are going to close strong, close far stronger than the corrupt betrayers on the other side who’ve lost the consent of the governed and will soon need to find some other way to make themselves rich.
So, with 16 days to go in this consequential election, we are where we hoped to be. And now we need stay steady and go finish the job by……
Two things you can do today in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates and state parties:
Become an
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Democracy Protectortoo. Our next trainings are Wednesday at 8pm and Saturday at 2pm.
Winning The Senate Fund - Donate | $1,510,100 raised, $2,000,000 new* stretch* goal | Watch interviews with these Senate flippers | This fund splits a single donation to our seven candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Adam Hamilton (KS), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
This is the team that is going to flip the Senate people. Note that on 10/9 we expanded this fund to include Adam Hamilton - yes much is possible for us this year!
**Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,635,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’ people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning Alaska - Donate | $25,200 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska campaign splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $75,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $106,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $257,100 raised, $300,000 new stretch goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Winning Texas (New) - Donate | $150,000 goal | Our Winning Texas campaign splits a contribution evenly among Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico, and the Texas Democratic Party and its impressive chair, Kendall Scudder.
**Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $647,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $60,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $81,700 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $43,100 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $707,700 raised, $750,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Finally, self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below.
Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country this November, together! - Simon
