Morning all. The proud, plucky patriots of this remarkable community gathered last night for our weekly get together. It was a lively and spirited affair, as they always are. A recording and rough transcript can be found above. Here is some of what we talked about……
**Trump Is Unraveling, Their Battlefield Is Deteriorating, A Wave Is Coming - **For months I’ve been saying that things were likely to get worse for Trump and the Rs as we got closer to Election Day - and they have. A lot worse:
We’ve gotten a rash of new polling in recent days and it is all telling the same story, and it is a very ugly one for Trump and his allies:
Today’s FiftyPlusOne’s forecast gives us a 97% chance of winning the House, and a 64% chance of winning the Senate. Yes, a 64% chance……
Fake Republican polls and some Democratic campaigns are going to tell you the election is “tightening,” and things are getting closer. There simply is no evidence of that anywhere right now. If anything the polling we’ve seen these past few weeks, driven in part by the weakening economy, soaring gas and diesel prices, and Trump’s clear, manifest failure abroad, is getting better for us. If things are moving they are moving towards us and not “tightening.”
My advice to all of you about the polling we are going to see is that unless something dramatic happens the Senate races are all close and are going to stay close through Election Day. That’s it. They are close, we have a shot at flipping the Senate, and we just need to put out heads down and go to work. Don’t sweat a single poll either way. Don’t seek out reasons to be anxious. Don’t get blown around. Stay focused on the mission. We are where we wanted to be at this point - remarkably - and now need to close strong and finish the job; and we need to, now, everyday, just do more and worry less.
There are two new high quality polls released this morning that I do want to drill down on. First, a Washington Post poll of Michigan. Here are the top lines, and they are very encouraging:
I strongly encourage everyone to read the poll analysis for it does a very good job at diving into the data and making sense of what we are seeing. Some of the reticence around El-Sayed is about his being Muslim, an “other.” But some of it is also ideological as “democratic socialists” as a brand has very limited appeal, and is a far weaker brand positioning than “Democrat.” This is data that has been confirmed in polls across the country, and it is why you are going to see national Democrats rush to Michigan to campaign with him (VP Harris is heading there in a few days) - and it is why despite his current weakness I believe El-Sayed will win. For as Jen Rubin and I discussed yesterday much of the narrative about the weakness of the Democratic brand these past few months has been bullshit, and an unhelpful and corrosive distraction. People have put their trust and faith back in us, and now we need to go out there and lead, win, and make things better……
The second poll is a bit of a shocker poll from Texas. Siena, considered one of he best pollsters in the country, dropped this bombshell this morning:
If the battlefield continues to deteriorate for the Rs, and improve for us, some of the races that were consider long-shots become more viable. We will keep an eye on that and adjust our strategy if warranted. But for now we are going to stay focused on the core thirty six races we are focused on, and supporting our battleground “Winning” series. For if these thirty six candidates all win - and they are all flips - both chambers will flip this November.
Finally, we spent time talking about the importance of two critical closing strong projects:
Driving the early vote, running up the score, and winning the election in October, not November
Signing up with your state party to be a Democracy Protector and help bolster the our national efforts to protect our elections this fall
I closed by expressing my hope that in addition to all the contrasts we can establish with the Rs in these next few weeks - costs, health care, character, etc - we use the long early vote period to establish one more - we believe in democracy and want everyone to vote, and they believe in oligarchy and don’t want us to vote. Celebrating the early vote, and the act of people voting, can become a powerful both implicit and explicit bludgeon we can use to define them as the most un-American group of politicians our country has ever seen. It’s why we need to see driving and embracing the early vote not just as a tactical way of us making it more likely we win and harder for them to cheat, but as a powerful closing message that allows us to become proud patriots defending our rights and freedoms and they to be understood as venal betrayers of everything that has made this remarkable nation great for 250 years.
That’s some of what we talked about last night. Watch my talk. Share it with others. Hit “like” so more will see it. And yes, my friends, it is that time…..
Friends, over $100,000 came in over this site yesterday. It was by far our biggest day of the cycle. Just amazing everyone. When this community is called - you always answer. Keep it up people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Two big things you can do in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, and organizations.Sign up to become a
Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is next Wednesday at 8pm ET.
**Our OG Winning The House Campaign **- Donate | $1,294,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone - and yes my friends, this week we hit our very ambitious goal, weeks before the election! Amazing stuff everyone!
Winning The Senate - $954,100 raised, $1,500,000 goal - Donate | This fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA). These are the majority makers in the Senate this cycle.
Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these exciting candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them here.
**Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund **- Donate | $448,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, primaries and need a bit more help.
Our list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with these great candidates here.
Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $50,100 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).
Due to space limitations for today we’ve moved our state “Winning” series to this new page. Head there to make state specific investments in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin!
Note that in any of our campaigns that aggregate donations you can tailor your contribution to a chosen subset of the candidates or even a single candidate by clicking on the “customize amounts” link just above the “$25, $50….” part of the ActBlue page.
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $58,100 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground.
Help Hopium Close Strong - We’ve launched a new fundraising drive for Hopium to allow us to expand our programming in these final critical days of the 2026 election and free up a bit of my time to support the State Parties’ Election Protection program. Our goal is to raise an initial $50,000 this week and perhaps even $100,000 over the coming weeks. It will allow me to add some additional capacity here and make sure the vital State Party program is successful.
There are a few ways you can support Hopium today:
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Become A Paid Subscriber, Upgrade To Founding Member*,
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Donate Directly To Hopium* - You can do that
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Mail A Check To Hopium HQ* - Send a check of any amount to 5185 MacArthur Blvd, NW, #600, Washington, DC 20016. Checks should be made out to “Hopium Chronicles by Simon Rosenberg.” Donations to Hopium Chronicles are neither tax-deductible nor tax-exempt.
Finally, self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below…..
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
