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Now, the war.
Trump declared victory. On Truth Social — where else — he suggested the US has nearly achieved all its objectives in Iran and that the Strait of Hormuz is now somebody else’s problem. We broke it, you fix it.
Here’s what’s actually happening: There are reports the US may send troops to Kharg Island — Iran’s oil hub, responsible for roughly 90% of its crude exports — as leverage to pressure Tehran into releasing its grip on the Strait. That is not the posture of a country that has won.
Yes, the US has the firepower to knock out Iranian facilities and own the sky. Iran’s strategy is different: strangle oil infrastructure, threaten the global economy, spread the pain.
And as Iran holds the world economy hostage, the US is walking back its own red lines. There’s talk of lifting sanctions, shifting objectives — Trump’s messaging changing again. The gap between his Truth Social posts and the ground truth keeps widening.
Also today: Oil “doomsday” scenarios; rising costs for food, raw materials, and flights; the Pentagon asked for $200B and Republicans balked; CBS is slashing staff and killing its century-old radio division; Democrats walked out of Bondi’s Epstein hearing; a federal court slapped down RFK Jr. on gender-affirming care.
And in News That Doesn’t Suck: A “damn good baseball game” and a big win for Venezuela.
Breaking: A federal judge on Fridayrevoked several partsof Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s restrictions on Pentagon reporting,including a requirementthat reporters pledge not to use unauthorized material. This voids the Pentagon’s ability torevoke press credentialsfor those who refused. The judge wrote that “those who drafted the First Amendment believed that the nation’s security requires a free press and an informed people and that such security is endangered by governmental suppression of political speech.” He noted the ongoing war makes it “more important than ever that the public have access to information from a variety of perspectives about what its government is doing.” So far, no word on the Pentagon’s response.Human Cost: Newestimatessuggestthe war in Iran has killed almost 1,500 civilians, includinghundreds of children. The overall death toll tops 4,000, including over 3,000 in Iran, 1,000 in Lebanon,15 in Israel, 4 in the West Bank, and dozens across the region, including 13 US troops.Warning Signs: The Trump administration issending thousands of additionalMarines and sailors along with amphibious assault ships to the Middle East. These ships are used toget troops and their equipmenton land for land-based missions.Trump isNBC Newsreportedly weighing several optionsforputting boots on theground. They could be used to capture Iranian oil facilities in an effort todrive up pressure on Iranto reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They could also be deployed to collect highly enriched uranium.reports Trump is interestedin “escalating the war in an attempt to end it,” a strategy you might recall from the Iraq war surge. Trumpcontinues to insisthe’s “not putting troops anywhere.” But he added that “if I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you.” Meanwhile, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuon Thursday argued“there has to be a ground component” to achieve regime change in Iran. Anew poll finds65% of Americans believe Trump will eventually order a ground invasion, which only 7% support.
All Talk: While the Marines head to the Middle East, Trump is busy suggesting to the public he’s winding things down. Trump on Fridayinsisted the warin Iran has been “Militarily WON” andclaimed he couldend it “right now” — but said he won’t because he wants to ensure Iran can “never rebuild” its military capacity. (It would be hard for the US to get out while Iran is holding the world’s oil supply hostage in the Strait of Hormuz.) Trump on Friday seemed to hint at an off-ramp,writing thatthe US is “getting very close to meeting our objectives” and arguing the Strait could be defended by “by other Nations who use it.” Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahuon Thursday claimed, without evidence, that Iran can no longer enrich Uranium nor manufacture ballistic missiles. Iran on Friday insisted it isstill constructing missiles, andlaunched drone and missile attacksacross the region.So far, the US and Israel have degraded Iran’s capabilities buthave failed to achieve“escalation dominance” — the ability to stop an adversary from escalating.War Hits Home: The war is driving a worldwide energy crisis — one that is impacting global trade, consumer prices, and food security. US airline ticket prices areup as much as 124%for domestic travel. USgasolineis nearly $4 per gallon, thehighest since 2022and almost adollar higherthan before the war. Abroad, it’s worse. Over 40% of gas stations in Thailand and 30% in Cambodiahave shut. Japan’sgas prices reacheda record high this week and European gas priceshave doubled since the start of the war. In Dubai, oil hita record$166 per barrel. On Friday globaloil prices hit$110 per barrel, and Goldman Sachswarned prices could stay above$100 for years. One Gulfscholar calledthis the “worst-case scenario” for the region. One analystwarned“we are now well on the road to the doomsday gas crisis scenario,” explaining price disruptions could last for years.Major Attack: Just one example. Iran struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, whichproduces one-fifthof the world’s liquified natural gas. The attackdestroyed17% of its facility’s export capacity**, with repairs expected to take 3–5 years.**QatarEnergy’s CEOcalled these“attacks on global energy security” and Qatar’sprime ministersaid the “war must be stopped immediately.”Knock-On: The ripple effects keep widening. The World Trade Organization this weekwarned the conflict has slowedglobal trade more than expected; the Strait of Hormuz is functionally closed, over 40,000 flights have been canceled, anddamagedfacilitiesare threatening shortages of raw materials like helium and sulfur. Oil-based goods,like plastic pellets, are also getting pricier and harder to find. This is important: RoughlyOh, and mortgage pricesone-third of the world’s supply of fertilizermoves through the Strait of Hormuz, so the blockade isdriving upfood pricesandthreatening shortagesworldwide.rose again this weekfor the third consecutive time, and are now thehighest they’ve beenin three months.Stop Hitting Yourself: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday said the US is. Yes, the same Iran sanctionsconsidering removing sanctionson Iranian oil in tankers at seaTrump reimposedafter scrapping the nuclear deal — in part because he didn’t want Iran profiting from oil sales. Bessentclaimed the administration“will be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down” for the next two weeks. Energy Secretary Chris Wright also argued that theoil is already on ships, so why use sanctions.On Friday he clarifiedthat “most of that oil will be absorbed in the next 30 to 45 days.” We should have put a trigger warning on this item.Let the: Bessent also suggested the US may release more of its Strategic Reserve. But after last week’s~~Spice~~Oil Flowrecord-breaking international release, the Reserve’s levels arebelow a legal threshold barring further releases(unless an emergency is declared) and nearing a structural threshold that, if breached, could undermine the stability of the Reserve itself. The Trump administrationfailed to fully refill the Reservebefore the war. This, after the Biden administrationordered a massive releaseto tamp down prices when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Blank Check: The Pentagon hasrequested $200 billion for the war in Iran. That’s more than Congressbar the US and China. Defense Secretaryappropriated for the first yearin Iraq, more than the UShas sent to Ukrainein the last four years, and more than the[annual defense budget of any country](https://www.axios.com/2026…
