It was a week of shifting signals for India’s real estate market. Uncertainty over US permanent residency rules raised questions about whether Indian technology professionals might reconsider their plans and return home, potentially bringing their dollar savings and adding to housing demand.
Adding another layer to the outlook, the Reserve Bank of India’s 25-basis-point repo rate hike, largely in line with expectations, put borrowing costs and homebuyer affordability back in focus amid persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty linked to the West Asia crisis.
The US government’s suspension of the Permanent Labour Certification (PERM) programme for major IT outsourcing companies has prompted a key question: could uncertainty over permanent residency encourage Indian technology professionals in the US to return home, bringing their dollar savings and housing demand with them? Most real estate experts believe caution will prevail in the near term. While some professionals who return to India may purchase homes, a large-scale repatriation of savings is unlikely.
The restrictions could, however, prompt some technology professionals to reassess their long-term plans and support incremental demand for residential property in India. The extent of any increase will depend on how the rules evolve and whether professionals choose to relocate or continue working in the US, experts say.
Greater uncertainty around permanent residency could also encourage some tech companies to expand operations in India, drawing on the country’s skilled workforce and cost advantages. That could support demand for commercial office space, particularly from global capability centres (GCCs), across Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Pune and Chennai.
Any resulting housing demand could concentrate in the premium segment, homes priced above ₹1.5 crore, as high-income professionals take up jobs in India. However, the impact will depend on the scale of corporate expansion and the number of jobs created.
Some experts cautioned that investing in India may not make financial sense for professionals earning in dollars, as currency movements could erode returns.
“If approvals and employment opportunities become more constrained, Indian professionals with the necessary skills could become more sought after in the US. However, it remains to be seen how many Indians already living there would actually want to return to India,” one expert said.
According to ANAROCK Research, homes priced above ₹1 crore accounted for 50% of residential sales in FY26. Cities with large employment bases, such as Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Mumbai and Delhi-NCR, could see incremental demand first.
But if professionals return gradually, the effect on sales is likely to be spread over time rather than arrive as a sudden surge.
It is also worth noting that NRIs remain a relatively small part of India’s housing market, with purchases concentrated largely in the premium and luxury segments. US-based Indians are an important part of this buyer pool, alongside NRIs from the Gulf, the UK and Singapore. Even so, a change in buying behaviour among US-based NRIs is unlikely to materially alter housing sales nationally, experts said.
The other major development was the Reserve Bank of India’s 25-basis-point repo rate hike, which came largely as expected amid persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainty linked to the West Asia crisis.
Higher borrowing costs could weigh on consumer sentiment and discretionary spending, adding to affordability pressures in interest-rate-sensitive housing segments. The timing is significant: the festive season typically brings a pickup in homebuying activity. Even a modest increase in EMIs could prompt prospective buyers to reconsider budgets or defer purchases, particularly in the affordable and mid-income segments, where buyers tend to be more sensitive to interest-rate movements, real estate experts said.
Developers may respond with flexible payment plans, stronger value propositions and targeted offers to sustain sales momentum. The key question is whether festive-season demand will prove resilient enough to absorb the higher cost of home loans.
For the property market, the coming months will offer a clearer picture of how global employment uncertainty, potential corporate expansion in India and rising borrowing costs shape homebuyer decisions.
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