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The most extreme scenario — a limited land incursion — is still considered unlikely. But U.S. officials say Moscow may be increasingly willing to probe how the alliance, and Washington, would respond.
New U.S. intelligence indicates that Vladimir Putin may be increasingly willing to test NATO, including through provocative actions extending onto alliance territory. The Wall Street Journal and CBS News reported the shift separately, each citing U.S. officials. The Journal reported that the risk window begins this fall and extends through 2029.
Neither report says Russia is preparing to invade a NATO country. The Journal reported that analysts considered scenarios ranging from cyberattacks and other hybrid operations to unmarked armed groups occupying territory and, at the most extreme end, a small-scale land incursion. The probability of a limited ground attack remains low, according to the Journal, although the risk is assessed to increase over time.
CBS News reported that U.S. officials view the change less as evidence that Mr. Putin wants a wider war than as a sign that he may be more willing to test NATO’s cohesion and Washington’s willingness to respond if an ally is attacked. The CIA declined to comment to CBS on the reported assessments.
Activity below the threshold of conventional war is already drawing heightened scrutiny across Europe.
Germany’s top military officer, Gen. Carsten Breuer, told The Wall Street Journal that Russia was systematically using drones to probe European air defenses and observe how NATO responds.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies assessed in July that it was highly likely the Kremlin had conducted a broader UAV campaign over Europe. The institute said the campaign’s likely objectives included testing response times and decision thresholds and identifying vulnerabilities around military and civilian infrastructure.
Recent airspace incidents have added to those concerns. NATO warplanes on Sunday shot down a drone that entered Romanian airspace and appeared to be Russian in origin, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing NATO and Romanian officials.
Two days earlier, NATO fighters shot down a foreign drone over Latvia. Latvian officials did not identify its origin but said it had entered the country’s airspace as a result of Russian electromagnetic warfare.
Neither incident establishes that Moscow has decided to attack NATO. They come against a broader pattern of suspected sabotage, cyberoperations and drone activity that European governments and security researchers have attributed, with differing levels of confidence, to Russia.
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