Greetings everyone. In my talk this week, As Bad As Things Are For Trump And The Rs Now - And They Are Bad - They Are Likely To Get Worse, I floated the idea that all this furious cheating we are seeing from the Rs would push them further away from voters, making it more likely they lose, which in turn would be even greater pressure on them to cheat harder, which would then push them ever further away from voters……..and a vicious, destructive cycle would kick in for our terrified, addled leader and his cowardly allies across the country.
That in addition to all the other arguments we are making in these final two months of the election we need to be up front and open about their outrageous cheating and manipulation for it will both help us win and prepare the electorate for all the fuckery to come. For their cheating is a manifestation of their oligarchical betrayal and disdain for our democracy, for us, for America and all that has for 250 years made America Great. The tariffs, the barbaric cuts to health care, the ICE terror campaigns, the cheating, the corruption - it is all one big, terrible thing and we need to run hard against it all…..
To understand their desperation lets look at some data and fresh reporting…..
The Civiqs daily Trump job approval tracker clocked in with its worst reading of the cycle this morning:
Consumer confidence is the lowest in over 60 years (via UMichigan):
The NYT writes today about the latest data from the Gallup Party ID tracker:
Party identification shifts are cyclical, according to Jeffrey Jones, a senior editor at Gallup.
“When things are going well in the country, party identification shifts in the direction of the party in charge,” Dr. Jones said. “When things are going poorly, like they are now with an unpopular Republican president and people unhappy with the state of the nation, people are moving away from the party in charge.”
This phenomenon is what political scientists call thermostatic public opinion. Much like a home thermostat, which might click on the heat when the room gets too cold, attitudes of the U.S. public shift on a large scale when people feel that something may have gone too far.
“What we are seeing now is similar to the end of the George W. Bush administration, when he was pretty unpopular,” Dr. Jones said. “
Democrats had a big lead in party identification, which was then a prelude to the 2006 and 2008 elections, which were big victories for Democrats.”
Here’s the chart the NYT put together for the story. Our party ID lead is the largest it’s been since the 2008 cycle:
Today’s FiftyPlusOne’s forecast has now has us with a 93% chance of flipping the House:
And a 57% chance of flipping the Senate:
Both are the highest readings for Democrats this cycle in these forecasts.
Here’s a clip of Gina Hinojosa doing a very good job at turning their cheating in Tarrant County, Texas into something that motivates:
“It is only lit a fire under the people of Tarrant Country. They are more motivated than ever to turn out this election cycle”
In addition to this Tarrant County chicanery and Trump’s outrageous efforts to block mail voting just look at all this horseshit the Republicans are trying…..
Yesterday, just two months before the election, the corrupt Roberts Court changed our campaign finance rules in ways that benefit Republicans.
Yesterday, in North Carolina, a desperate GOP made it harder for voters to have their votes counted:
Hours before sending out absentee ballots to voters, North Carolina pushed through its latest restrictions that could make it harder for those votes to count.
The North Carolina State Board of Elections Friday voted 3-2 along party lines to pass two numbered memos, despite voter opposition, that make it harder for voters to return their absentee ballots and easier for counties to throw those ballots out.
In Semafor Max Tani writes about a new right-wing media effort:
Over the last several months, a new generation of YouTube growth-hackers have flooded American politics with sensationalized, low-quality content, reaching millions of viewers with nearly identical videos taking aim at progressive politicians including Zohran Mamdani, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. Notably, while the videos are presented as laypeople giving straight-to-camera ideological news recaps, they feature actors and spokespeople paid small amounts of money to read nearly identical scripts laced with misleading claims and outright falsehoods.
In The Atlantic Ali Breland writes about a similar effort being run from Latvia:
If you’re short on cash, there is someone in Riga, Latvia, who can help. “You can literally make 100k a month with this campaign,” a young man with blond curls and a thick accent says into a camera. All you have to do is post on social media video clips of “anything that supports Republican.” Unfamiliar with U.S. politics? No problem: “If you’re not from the USA, like,
What the fuck is even Republicans?like me,” then simply go to Gemini or ChatGPT, he suggests, “and be like ‘Yo, Gemini, I want some videos promoting Republican values. Give me ideas.’ Go to Gemini. Get ideas. Boom.”The man, who goes by Serviuos, is promoting a campaign called Elephant Clipping, run by his company, ClipIt. The company pays subcontractors, many from poorer countries in Eastern Europe and the global South, to chop up videos the company provides into bite-size pieces in the hope that the clips will go viral online.
Such “clipping” operations have become a popular means of manipulating people’s attention. Brands, influencers, musical artists, and others spend six-figure sums on such promotional campaigns. Perhaps inevitably, the practice is now moving into politics, often without the transparency required to know exactly what is being served up and by whom. Five months before the midterms, though, Serviuos is up-front about the goal of the Elephant Clipping campaign: “So that republican win in USA,” he writes in one message. I sent Serviuos a list of questions about his work in American right-wing politics. He wrote back, “Seems very out of context,” but didn’t comment further.
We also know they will be flooding ding the zone with fake polling in the coming weeks for the use of fake polling to shape election narratives is a core part of the global right’s playbook. We’ve seen here in the US in 2022, 2024, and 2025. We saw it in Hungary earlier this year. And now it is also showing up in the UK. Reform UK is a MAGA aligned political party. From The Guardian:
A polling firm at the centre of allegations that Reform UK breached electoral law is being investigated by two industry bodies.
JL Partners, which is run by former Conservative aides, has been accused of breaking transparency rules by failing to declare that three separate polls had been commissioned by the party.
The company is a member of the British Polling Council and the Market Research Society, who say the identity of a client commissioning a poll should be disclosed when the results enter the public domain.
Both organisations confirmed on Friday that they had launched inquiries into JL Partners. The reviews have come after Channel 4 News broadcast footage gathered by undercover reporters during a year-long investigation into Reform’s finances on Thursday night.
Shining a light on their illiberalism and betrayal to make it less scary and more likely we win is a core objective of Hopium’s Evolving Battlefield Project:
We’ve launched a new project at Hopium to study, discuss, and counter anything Trump might do to illicitly retain power in an election that is breaking hard against him and the Republicans Party. We are launching this project to demystify Trump’s tactics, make them less “scary,” and more widely understood; and by making them more widely understood we make it far less likely they will be successful.
This year we are running against a political party that no longer feels bound by law or democratic norms; has already openly conspired with a hostile foreign power to win an election, and launched an insurrection to try to overturn another one; and has a desperate, corrupt, failing leader who fears prison and ruin if we win. We were surprised and unprepared for Russia’s intervention in 2016, and Trump’s assault on our elections in 2020 and 2021. We cannot be surprised and unprepared this year. Or scared. It is just the work we must do, like making phone calls and writing postcards and giving money to campaigns. The battlefield evolves, and so do we. It is key to how we will win in 2026 and take back Congress in 2027. Together.
This sensibility will also be driving our work with the State Parties New Battlefield Project as it gets stood up in the coming weeks.
The bottom line peeps - they are losing, badly. Thus they are cheating, boldly. And we need to talk to the American people about this to fuel righteous anger at their betrayal and prepare them for more to come……
To take action, get smarter:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, organizations….Sign up to be a
Democracy Protectorin your state. Our next on-line training is Wed, Sept 9 at 8pm ET.Donateto the Texas Democratic Party to help them counter the GOP’s elimination of dozens of polling locations in Tarrant CountyWatch our terrific new conversations with
Josh Turek(Iowa),Bobby Pulido(TX-15),Stuart Stevens, WI Dem ChairDevin Remiker,Tom Bonieron fake polls, andDr. Rob Shapiroon how Dems should be approaching repairing the US economy next year. Lots of meaty and encouraging stuff in here!
And of course, we need to stay focused on Job One - winning these elections by as big a margin as possible…….
Let’s start with the Hopium Daily Mantra:
There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.
**Our Winning The House Campaign **- Donate | $1,190,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
Winning The Senate - $830,100 raised, $1,200,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these exciting candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.
**Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund **- Donate | $346,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, primaries and need a bit more help.
Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with these great candidates here.
Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $31,400 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).
For our full list of electoral recommendations head back to yesterday’s post. Ran out of room today!
Self-report all the good trouble you are making each day in our paid subscriber chat below…..
And keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
