WHATEVER IT TAKES…
“It is even harder for the average ape to believe that he has descended from man.”****H. L. MenckenRooting hard for the Hoosiers tonight!
President Donald Trump imposed 10% tariffs on eight European NATO allies including Denmark, France, and Germany over their military support for Greenland, escalating to 25% by June unless the U.S. acquires the island.
The Gaza Peace Board is out, with Trump named as chair ( unlimited in time) others including Kushner, Blair Rubio also on, while simultaneously requiring nations to pay $1 billion for permanent membership; Netanyahu said no, Putin has been invited. Hungary’s Viktor Orban accepted the invitation to the Gaza-specific board, prompting the EU to halt its trade deal approval.French President Emmanuel Macron to seek activation of the anti-coercion instrument against the U.S., and UK right-wing parties to criticize the US Greenland move, potentially widening intra-EU rifts and shifting U.S. strategic focus toward Polish-led Central and Eastern Europe amid broader geopolitical disarray.
"Does Carney deal with China ‘open the door’ to Donroe Doctrine towards Canada? "
(Kao)“Trump Wants His Peace Board Signed in Davos. Macron Declines”
(Bbrg)"America Vs. The World”
(The Atlantic)"Greenland, Midterms, and the Foreign Policy Escape Hatch”
(Arya)Not The Onion“Report: Trump Letter to Norway PM Reiterates Greenland Threats and Links Failure to Award Trump Nobel Prize to Greenland Situaton”(Substack)
Text of the Reported LetterDear Ambassador: “President Trump has asked that the following message, shared with Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, be forwarded to your [named head of government/state].
“Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a ‘right of ownership’ anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT
Ok, so let's briefly talk about unexpected secondary and tertiary consequences.
Shattering of the NATO Alliance: Whether or not the European countries drop their opposition to the U.S. assumption of control of Denmark or not, trust has been broken. Some things cannot be “un-done” with a new administration; the policies, sure, but trust is more difficult to reclaim.
Europe- and other US allies will need to strongly consider a more independent military philosophy, which more likely than not would include nuclear weapons.
Handing China a massive trade win. Let’s look at two data points: China’s GDP was up sharply, fueled by exports, even with the US-China trade war, driven mostly by Europe. And second, the recent deal between the U.S. and China
Negative impact on the USD-pegged ( and therefore TSY-centric) Stablecoin, which is a cornerstone of current Administration policy; note the many discussions about the Stablecoin vs Gold-based ( run by China) reserve currencies regimes. Luke Gromen, one of the better thinkers in our space, said:
Luke GromenYeah, i think Trump & Miller’s comments this week pretty much put a bullet in the USD stablecoin initiative.
US: “Whatever you don’t control, we can take”
Also US: “Here, use our stablecoin...it’s safe!
Some other good reads
“Americans Bear Almost All the Cost of Trump Tariffs, Study Shows”
(Bbrg)“What if OpenAI is worth more dead than alive?”
(FT Alphaville)“The Palestinian Matrix of the Islamic Revolution in Iran”
(Kyle Orton)“Stop Normalizing Fascism”
(Substack)
My friend PauloMacro draws attention to the massive risk-on regime
NAIIM shows almost full investment
We haven’t focused on Emerging Markets for soooooo long, but it certainly appears to be time.
“The Latest on the K-Shaped Economy” (Stephenson)
SO MUCH WINNNNNNNNNING
