A slew of new polling data points towards a big blue wave in November. So can we trust the polls?
Autumn is in the air in Washington, D.C. — and for Democrats, so is optimism about their odds of recapturing both the House and, however unlikely it seemed a year ago, even the Senate. A spate of post-Labor Day polls show Dems edging out Republicans in key races across the country as voters grow increasingly fed up with Donald Trump’s war in Iran, high gas prices, and rising inflation.
Democrats lead Republicans by 51 percent to 43 percent on a generic ballot, according to a widely respected
New York Times/Siena pollof likely voters. “That’s ‘blue wave’ territory,” NYT’s Nate Cohn concluded.
But there’s more. A
new battleground pollfrom the nonpartisan Cook Political Report showed a seven-point swing toward Democrats in the 37 most competitive House districts, putting the party in a strong position to flip control of the lower chamber this November.
A
separate analysisfrom polling guru Nate Silver, co-host of Crooked Media’s “Still Counting” podcast, also showed Democrats leading Republicans by 7.5 points on the generic 2026 ballot, which is the party’s biggest lead this cycle.
**Democrats are riding high. “If the election were held today, we would win the majority,” **Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told The Washington Post.
Then there’s the money.
In another positive sign for Democrats, the party’s main fundraising apparatus had two of its biggest months in a midterm cycle this summer, racking up more than $14 million in grassroots donations in July and August. The Democratic National Committee also had a million unique individual donors this summer, an unusually high number during a typically slow fundraising period, The Washington Sun reported.
But
the GOP has its own war chest. The House and Senate GOP super PACs have a combined $332 million between them. Republicans are also planning to outspend Democrats by $140 million in ads in the nine most competitive races heading into November, theWashington Postreported, citing data from AdImpact. Billionaires and tech titans are alsobankrollingthe GOP’s election efforts.
Despite Schumer’s bravado, recapturing the Senate remains far from guaranteed. The party needs to flip at least four seats to take control of the upper chamber, including winning in at least two states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, according to the
Post.
**Schumer acknowledged the GOP’s financial advantage but told the Post: **“We don’t need as much money as them, given the political climate. All we need is enough to stay in the ballpark and be able to answer them.”
** A second tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz** on Friday, just hours after another vessel came under fire, a U.K. navy agency said. The attacks came after Trump threatened to “annihilate” the Iranian regime. “It’s a big decision,” Trump boasted. “Anything could happen with me.” Didn’t he say the U.S. won this war back in, like, March or something?
** Democratic and Republican-led states are pushing** for tighter guardrails on AI, despite Trump’s laissez-faire approach to regulating the technology. The pushback comes after former employees from top AI companies warned that the technology is growing and evolving so fast that it could “
** Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel suggested one way to get Trump to pump the brakes** on AI: “Tell him ChatGPT is about to release the Trump-Epstein files. I’ll bet — I’ll bet 100 bucks he’ll get Pandora stuffed right back in that box.”
** Trump plans to meet with Venezuela’s new interim president,** Delcy Rodriguez, as soon as next week, sources told Axios. The reported meeting will likely happen on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, at which Trump will also meet with Gulf leaders to discuss the Iran war.
** Toys ‘R’ Us is making a comeback**, as teenagers and adults — many of whom are shopping for themselves in addition to gifts for children — drive an uptick in toy sales. The once-troubled chain is opening 120 new stores this holiday season, NBC News reported, bringing the total number of Toys ‘R’ Us stores to 160 just in time for Christmas.
** Californians are pumped about a rare sighting of a humpback whale** 60 miles from the Pacific Ocean in a delta in the Sacramento River. “I thought it was a submarine at first,” Josue Mejia Blanco, a fisherman who spotted the whale, told an ABC affiliate in San Francisco. “It wasn’t until it spit out a bunch of water that I realized it was a whale … At first it was kind of mind-blown. I couldn’t process it.”
** A Philadelphia couple is working to improve the public’s perception of pigeons.** Do some people dislike pigeons? Yes. After all, back in the 1960s, one New York City official called them “rats with wings.” Hannah Brower and her partner, Aspen Simone, started a pigeon tour in South Philly that showcases the many pigeon flocks in the area. The couple also has their own pet pigeon, Primrose, who’s four years old. “We like to say in our household, ‘A pigeon on the head is a delight to all,” Brower told the
** Teenagers reported that just three minutes of petting miniature horses and donkeys** improved their anxiety, according to a study published this week in Scientific Reports. “It was lovely to see that interacting with nature could make such a positive difference so quickly,” one researcher told the
