**The midterms have finally arrived. **Here’s why Democrats shouldn’t worry about polling error this year — or, at least, not worry too much.
Somebody’s getting mogged tonight. And if the polls turn out to be right — always a colossal “if!” — then that somebody is President Donald Trump and the entire Republican Party.
For those unfamiliar with the term, “mogging” (which Collins Dictionary named
word of the yeartoday) means to outshine someone to the point of embarrassment. Seemingly everyelectionindicatoravailable — polls, models and prediction markets — suggest a historic blue wave is upon us, in which Democrats mog the GOPso hardit might just generate some new dictionary-worthy terms to commemorate the moment.
Yet the auguries are so uniformly good for the left, that many Democrats literally just refuse to believe them. Polls have let them down before, most notoriously during Trump’s bizarre political rise in 2016 and resurrection in 2024. So, there exists the possibility that the pollsters will be the ones getting, shall we say, outperformed… by reality. As a headline in The Onion today put it: “
Nation Lines Up In Droves To Humiliate Nate Silver,” in reference to the polling guru who recently launched the excellentStill Countingpodcast with Crooked Media.
The polling skeptics should keep two things in mind. First, pollsters are painfully aware of their past failures. Many have been tweaking their methodology to account for their past bloopers as if their jobs depended on it. Second, even a massive correction in favor of the GOP… would still mean a pretty good night for Dems, because their current polling lead really is that tremendous.
“If the polls are as wrong as they were in the 2018 and 2022 midterms, Democrats will walk away tonight with 54 seats in the U.S. Senate,” data expert G. Elliott Morris
wrote today. “If the polls miss as they did in the recent presidential years, they’ll likely fall short of a majority with just 50.”
In other words: Even if pollsters are off, Democrats have good reason to feel confident that millions of voters will deliver a rebuke of the Republican Party and the Trump administration today.
But will Trump’s intimidation tactics deter people from voting?
State election officials have feared for months that Trump’s team will send federal agents to the polls, potentially scaring voters away. Those concerns remain valid: The Department of Justice
deployed a record-breaking1,000 election monitors to every state today.
Nevada Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, however, isn’t sweating the deployments, because the “the incompetence is so high” among the president’s team.
“The federal government can’t do anything well,” Aguilar told
What a Day. “And the fact that they’re going to be able to coordinate 1,000 observers across the country to do anything impactful is a pipe dream.”
Of course, federal agents could still pull some funny business. “The wild card here is again the administration,” Aguilar added. “You never know what people do in desperation. But we’re prepared for all of it. I’m not fearful of any of it.”
Data shows that Americans want to have their voices heard in this election. Several states
setearlyvotingrecords, including several battlegrounds. Latinos also havereportedly votedin record numbers, driven by opposition to ICE’s immigration campaign.
**“We’re not going to be bullied by them,” Aguilar said. **“They can go fuck themselves.”
Read: Message Box: An Hour-by-Hour Guide to Staying Sane on Election Night by Crooked’s Dan Pfeiffer
** Donald Trump said that he plans** to cut off roughly $4 billion in funding to Israel by the end of the year, admitting that he’s tired of Democrats talking about the issue on the campaign trail. “Why should we suffer the slings from lunatics like an El-Sayed when [Israel doesn’t] need it,” Trump told Fox News. “They don’t need it.” Classic Trump to wake up to a red-hot political issue on [
** Think climate change isn’t having an impact on our politics?** The climate would beg to differ. Today, more than a dozen polling locations in Florida were forced to relocate as parts of the state saw
A child died after contracting measles in upstate New York, marking the state’s first death related to the disease in three decades, state officials announced. The death is “a devastating reminder of what’s at stake when Washington deliberately erodes decades of progress in protecting Americans from preventable illnesses,” said Gov. Kathy Hochul (D-NY).
** The former FBI chief in Chicago accused top Trump officials** of pressuring him to investigate the president’s perceived political foes and using him as a “scapegoat” when a case against anti-ICE protestors fell apart. The DOJ and FBI didn’t respond to
** Schools that restrict access to Google’s AI tools will also** lose access to Google Search, the company announced today. “Search and A.I. are deeply integrated,” said Google’s VP for education. There are
The Pod Save America** guys will be on Jimmy Kimmel’s** late night show to break down the election results tonight. Tune in!
** Three U.S. astronauts on the International Space Station** voted today using electronic ballots. What’s your excuse?!
** How does NBC’s Steve Kornacki prepare for big election nights?** Based on his Spotify listening habits, there’s a good chance Kornacki throws on The Temptations before the country relies on him to guide them through the poll results. “It says my all-time top song is ‘My Girl,’” Kornacki told Wired. “Is Spotify the one that did your listening age or something a couple years ago? Mine was 87 or something.”
** Speaking of memes, New York’s government encouraged **people to vote today by posting an image of John Pork at the polls. Not familiar with John Pork? He’s an anthropomorphic pigman who wears a red flannel and a sly smile. And for some reason,
The New Yorker ** published a satirical piece** about how outsiders view the lives of D.C. insiders, and I can’t stop laughing at this bit: “Breakfast is scrambled eggs and toast, prepared and hand-fed to me by Mitt Romney,” the author writes. And that’s not the only encounter with the former senator. “Somebody walks by me. It’s Mitt Romney. I wonder why he serves me breakfast by hand every morning. It’s not something we’ve discussed.”
** Rock bands, from Metallica to the Fray, have started noticing **an influx of parents bringing their kids to shows. “When we were kids and we went to see rock ‘n’ roll, our parents would be like, ‘what the fuck is that shit you’re listening to?’” the manager of Weezer and Green Day told the
** Edward Freytag, a 66-year-old middle school teacher,** mysteriously developed perfect pitch, the ability to immediately identify musical notes by ear, after a motorcycle crash five years ago. Only about 1 in 10,000 people are believed to have perfect pitch, which is thought to be genetic. “The lucky few who have it — a group that has included Mozart, Ella Fitzgerald and Charlie Puth — tend to be musical prodigies,” the
** Heidi Klum dressed as her own severed hand** for Halloween, continuing her legacy of being the weirdest-dressed person every year. Which costume was her favorite? “The worm in 2022,” she said,
