My good friend Tom Bonior dropped by this afternoon for a live for in-depth discussion of what we are seeing in the early vote, late polling, and escalating Trumpian chaos with four days to go. Here’s some of the data we reviewed today:
Here’s my summary of what we are seeing so far. It is very encouraging:
Democrats are voting more in-person and less by mail this this year (as we wanted):
Here’s a bit more on the enormous surge of Hispanics voters across the US;
We also talked about how whatever data you are seeing that projects Democratic performance in the early vote it is likely underestimating it for independent voters have broken so hard against Trump and the Rs this time compared to previous elections:
We also discussed that while not only are more young people voting than 2022 we are likely to see one of our strongest Democratic performances with young people in recent decades:
While Black voters are also voting at elevated levels recent polling suggests that we could a very, very strong Democratic performance this cycle too:
The Hispanic surge has been enormous this year, and recent polling suggests that we are likely to see Democrats return to more traditional margins here too:
While we go through lots of data in our presentation we also end by talking about the significance of Democrats competing in so many regions of the country where we have struggled - Alaska, Texas, the Midwest/Heartland, the Deep South - and why we may not only be restitching together a popular vote majority that we lost in 2024 but a far better and more durable electoral map for our party. It’s a very uplifting stuff!
We are planning on having Tom back for a Election Eve update on the early vote on Monday at 315pm ET. Look for links in future Hopium posts, enjoy our discussion, and keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
Tom Bonier is a veteran Democratic political strategist and TargetSmart’s Chief Executive Officer. Prior to TargetSmart, Tom co-founded Clarity Campaign Labs in 2012 and helped build it into one of the nation’s leading Democratic analytics and research firms. He has spent more than 20 years working in Democratic and progressive politics. Prior to Clarity, Bonier served as Chief Operating Officer at the National Committee for an Effective Congress (NCEC). Throughout his career, Bonier has received numerous awards for his contributions to political campaigning, redistricting, and strategic planning. He has also appeared as a commentator for multiple publications, including The New York Times, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, and Politico, as well as on-air on “News Hour” on PBS and “All Things Considered” on National Public Radio.
