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Why I Don't Think Republicans Are Going to Lose the Senate

Erick-Woods Erickson · Erick Erickson's Show Notes

Oct 2, 2026 · 1 min listen · Last updated October 2, 2026

Harry Enten went on CNN two days ago and made some news. He said that Republicans have a stubborn habit of outperforming their September polling in the states that decide control of the Senate.

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Why I Don't Think Republicans Are Going to Lose the Senate

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Harry Enten went on CNN two days ago and made some news. He said that Republicans have a stubborn habit of outperforming their September polling in the states that decide control of the Senate. He is right, he had the numbers to prove it, and good for him for saying it out loud on a network whose audience would prefer a cheerier story for the Democrats.

Look at what he actually laid out.

In the major 2024 races, Republicans outran their September polls by 9 points in Iowa, by 6 in Ohio, and by 5 in Michigan. A skeptic will say that it was 2024, with President Trump on the ballot. As Harry noted, go back to the 2018 midterms, the first midterm of Trump’s first term, and you get the same pattern. Republicans beat their September polls by 6 in Iowa, 6 in Ohio, and 8 in Michigan. Across 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2024, Republicans have outperformed their September polling by at least 5 points in every one of those states. The Democratic leads in those same races right now sit under that margin.

The reason is not magic, and it is not fraud.

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Why I Don't Think Republicans Are Going to Lose... · Storyflo