Morning all. We are twelve days out. To make the big blue wave that is emerging bigger we need to keep driving the early vote. For as Anderson Clayton told us a few weeks ago:
Elections are decided in November, but they are won in October
Our community of proud, plucky patriots gathered last night for our weekly look at how we are doing in the grand battle against MAGA and for freedom and democracy. A recording and rough transcript are above. Here is some of what we talked about…..
In wave elections things usually break against the incumbent party at the end. We are clearly seeing that now. In poll after poll this past week the headlines read some version of “Trump hits new low” in the poll. Despite his ferocious campaigning, their enormous spending advantage, his serial bribes of the electorate, the power of the right-wing noise machine, and his control over and censoring of legacy and social media Trump has been unable to stem his decline. The coverage this past week has been brutal for our arrogant and vainglorious leader:
In recent days we’ve seen remarkable visualizations that capture just how much the country has turned on Trump and Trumpism. This one is from Reuters/Ipsos:
Not only has the electorate turned against Trump and the Rs, but they are turning towards us. In recent days we’ve seen gaudy generic ballot leads for Democrats:
Here’s the latest generic ballot tracker from FiftyPlusOne. We were up 6 on Labor Day. We are up 9 today:
+9 Dem is an 11 point swing from 2024, which is why we are competitive in so many Trump +10 and more states and districts now. Which brings me to what is perhaps the most remarkable data we have about this election - the polling in the battleground Senate states. If you look at the polling across the broader battleground - AK, GA, IA, ME, MI, MN, NC, OH, TX - there is only one Republican who has consistently led in polling for either Senate and governor in any of these states. It’s Greg Abbott, in Texas, and even he has only led in half of recent polls. Republicans do not have polling in any of these states, some deeply Republican, showing their candidates consistently leading - despite all their spending, the power of incumbency, etc. While we do have polling in all these states showing our candidates for Senate and governor consistently leading. There is a legitimate possibility that we win both the governor’s race and the Senate race in all these states. This is not something anyone believed possible a year ago, and it is still leaves me stunned. For we are going deep, deep into red states and red places, places we’ve struggled in for decades, in ways that could fundamentally alter our politics and our maps in the coming years.
What we are seeing in Texas may be the most consequential development in the election but as we discussed with Jane Kleeb this week we are also seeing a revival of a prairie populist Democratic Party in the heartland - Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Ohio - that has enormous implications for the future of both parties:
I will be putting out a more thorough analysis of the early vote over the next few days but as I discussed last night we are seeing one very significant trend emerge - Hispanics are voting in very large numbers across the country. Here’s fresh data from TargetEarly. It shows how much bigger the Hispanic vote is today compared to four years ago on this day. That Hispanics roared and helped vote the racists out of office would be quite a story line from this election:
We also discussed something I will be commentating on a lot in the coming weeks - our remarkable and inspiring candidates, the emergence of character and integrity as a powerful antidote to Trumpism, our embrace of “raucous pluralism,” and how the Democratic Party is evolving, changing, expanding, getting better - as so many wanted, and demanded.
Finally, we spent time talking about how in the world could have Trump allowed himself to fall so far without making a major course correction along the way. This is something we’ve discussed here frequently over the past year as Trumpworld was seeing all the same data we’ve been seeing - our heightened performance in special elections, our huge wins last November, our elevated primary performances in states throughout the country this year, national and state polling, consumer confidence surveys, soaring inflation, slower job creation, ugly health care stats - and yet he just kept going, he kept doubling down on policies that were neither making things better for people nor popular.
I’ve come to believe that it was his arrogance, his vainglory, his belief in a coming thousand year nerd Reich, his corrupt stock pile of money, his contempt for Democrats/democracy/the American people, his underestimating of the Iranians, the fluffing he gets from Natalie each day, his age and addled state - all of this contributed to him believing that we could never beat ME. I’m Trump. They are little people. I always win, survive. There are never consequences for my misdeeds. I am mighty and powerful and they are suckers and losers. And yet here we are. With a reckoning coming. With him now impotent, weak, repudiated, failed, and the American people angry, deeply angry at the corruption, of the “more for me and less for all of you” government, of the searing abandonment and betrayal, of monuments, and golf courses, and flying palaces, and the gluttonous stuffing of his pockets, of selling out to Putin……
The American people have had it. And we still have elections here despite all his efforts to make them go away. And the American people are not just angry at them. They have put their faith back in us to make things better and put things right. And the first thing they want us to do now is win this election in October by driving the early vote through the roof; then we need to ensure there is a peaceful transfer of power in Washington and throughout the country in January; and then we have to get on fight like we’ve never fought for anything before to make things better and put things right for the American people, for our democracy, and for our kids and our grandkids.
That’s what we talked about last night. Get to the video when you can. Share it with others. Hit like so more will see it and read this post. And yes my friends, it is that time, time to go….
There are three things you can do today in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates and state parties:
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Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is Saturday at 2pm.Stand with Dr. Amy Actonby donating to ourWinning Ohio Fundtoday
Winning The Senate Fund - Donate | $1,551,100 raised, $2,000,000 new* stretch* goal | Watch interviews with these Senate flippers | This fund splits a single donation to our seven candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Adam Hamilton (KS), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
This is the team that’s going to flip the Senate people. Note that on 10/9 we expanded this fund to include Adam Hamilton - yes much is possible for us this year!
**Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,644,600 raised, $2,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates | This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’ people!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Winning Alaska - Donate | $28,300 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska campaign splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $81,700 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $107,600 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $286,100 raised, $300,000 new stretch goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Winning Texas (New) - Donate | $6,800 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Texas campaign splits a contribution evenly among Gina Hinojosa, James Talarico, and the Texas Democratic Party and its impressive chair, Kendall Scudder.
**Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $652,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $61,600 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $82,900 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $44,100 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $709,400 raised, $750,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $109,000 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground. Friends - we have hit our goal here - thank you!
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Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country this November, together! - Simon
