Happy Sunday all. I’m having a Sunday with family today so just a few things this morning……
Saturday’s post has links to our recent interviews, current political analysis, and more. Head there first thing if you haven’t gotten to it yet. It’s full of informative fare for your “check in on the election” reading, listening, or viewing aspirations this Sunday with a little more than four weeks to go in the 2026 Election.
Here’s today’s national early vote update from our friends at TargetEarly. Remember this data is comparing this day in 2026 to the same day in 2022 and 2024. The data is both encouraging and very early - so don’t get too excited…….
This week the early vote is going to start becoming a major part of he 2026 election. In person voting is getting turned on and mail ballots start arriving all across the country. Make sure you become an Early Vote Champion. Help us drive the early vote and let’s aim to run up the score and win this election in October, not November. As more states begin voting this early vote data will start becoming more meaningful and important to understanding what’s happening in the 2026 election, and interpreting it will become a major part of what I do here each day.
We also have access to state data, and I am working to figure out how to best share what will be a lot of data from the states here each day. Here’s Virginia as of today. Again, both encouraging and early:
The Washington Post has a new and very comprehensive overview of both Trump’s work to disrupt/interfere/cheat in our elections and his disabling of some of the US government’s tools to protect them. Here’s an excerpt from the article, With threats to midterms, states say Trump administration isn’t helping (gift link):
U.S. intelligence agencies are monitoring schemes by Russia and other adversaries to meddle in the midterm elections, but countering those threats has been complicated by the Trump administration’s slashing of the federal government’s election security infrastructure, officials say.
The spy agencies assess that Russia, as it has in past years, will use digital disinformation to sow distrust in the 2026 midterm results and foment societal divisions, according to lawmakers and other officials. U.S. intelligence, however, has detected no signs that foreign adversaries are able to interfere directly with voting machines or vote counts.
With the midterms less than five weeks away, state elections officials responsible for administering them are decrying what they say is a dearth of information on such threats and other support from Washington.
“We’re in the dark when it comes to any sort of intelligence” on foreign adversaries, said Utah’s Republican Lt. Gov. Deirdre Henderson. “We’re not being informed if there are problems.”President Donald Trump’s administration has halted intelligence briefings, trainings, systems testing and other resources for states, according to the state officials and former federal election security officials. Only in recent days have federal agencies begun offering briefings to states, and it is unclear if any have taken place.
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), a key election security agency under the Department of Homeland Security, laid off
[nearly one-third]of its staff in early 2025.Trump has yet to appoint a director for the CISA — though there have been three acting directors — leaving states in “a holding pattern,” said Idaho Secretary of State Phil McGrane, a Republican.
The Trump administration also shuttered the Foreign Malign Influence Center, a U.S. intelligence body that monitored adversaries’ disinformation campaigns and threats to American democracy.
And Trump in July fired two Democratic members of the bipartisan Election Assistance Commission, which helps states conduct secure and accurate elections
.The remaining commissioner, a Republican, resigned. The commission is now permitted to carry out only[certain limited tasks]with a skeleton staff.Trump has repeatedly, and falsely, cast doubt on the accuracy of U.S. elections, claiming without evidence that he, not Joe Biden, won the 2020 contest. He personally tried to intervene in the 2020 Georgia recount, and his proxies filed dozens of legal challenges to the election results, almost all of which failed. In his second term, Trump has encouraged aides to
[search]for evidence of election fraud.Trump has made no secret of his desire to shape the course of the 2026 elections, widely seen as a referendum on his second term thus far. He and his administration have threatened to assert federal control over the state-run elections, pushed largely baseless claims of voter fraud and tried to restrict mail-in voting. In September, he
[told]supporters to “try and cheat like hell, like they do,” referring to his years-long unsubstantiated assertions of voter fraud that tilts elections in favor of Democrats.
I share this article not to scare but to inform. It’s our view that we have to normalize all this desperate Trumpian fuckery and understand that it is just part of that new political battlefield we are all competing in. For there remains in our discourse a bit of “no way is he really going to do that. He’s just Trump being Trump. Full of bluster…..quit being such a conspiracy theorist.” Trump’s ability to push his illiberalism, criminality, and betrayal of America to the sidelines - the collaboration with Russia in 2016, the attack on Congress in 2021, the Epstein cover up, his current selling out of the West to Putin, his unprecedented corruption and self-dealing - has been one of his greatest achievements and one of our most consequential collective failures. So normalization, just talking about it the way we do the early vote, campaign ads, polls - without getting scared - is incredibly important now - and something we will be doing here each day.
All of this is also why we helped the state parties’ stand up its New Battlefield Project, which helps the states better understand how Trump and MAGA are fighting now and helps them create effective strategies to counter it all and prevail. The leader of the New Battlefield Project, ASDC President Jane Kleeb, will be stopping by soon to give us an update on our progress.
Some of you have asked about the chatter that somehow the polls may be overstating Dem strength right now, even though even one should recall that in 2022 - the last midterm election the polls told us a red wave was coming, even though it never came. Though I am not a Nate Silver guy here is a useful graphic he’s put together about polling bias in recent elections.
Keep calm and carry on peeps. Don’t get blown off course. Don’t seek worry. We are on the cusp of having the election we all have wanted to have and keep need to working as hard as we can……
And yes that means it is that time again. Time to….
Three things you can do in addition to supporting our intrepid candidates and state parties:
Become an
Early Vote Championin your networks, communities, and organizations.Sign up to become a
Democracy Protectortoo. Our next training is this Wednesday, Oct 7th at 10pm ET.Email photos of your electoral work or physical act of voting to community@hopiumchronicles.com or via links on our daily chat. We want to start showcasing them here on Hopium.
**Our Winning The House - Stake In The Ground Fund **- Donate | $1,551,100 raised, $2,000,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Watch interviews with all twelve candidates |This is our #1 fund, updated now with new intel to include the twelve most competitive races where money and volunteers are most needed (largely due to the expense of the district, and understanding now where Republicans have decided to stand and fight).
Our * Stake In The Ground Fund* now includes Jamie Ager (NC-11), Rebecca Bennett (NJ-7), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Cait Conley (NY-17), Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Christina Hines (MI-10), Brian Poindexter (OH-7), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), and Randy Villegas (CA-22).
If we win these twelve races the House flips - period. So let’s get on with the flippin’!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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These are the majority makers in the Senate this cycle, and we need with everything we got to win all six.
**Our New Growing Our House Majority Fund **- Donate | $599,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Watch interviews with all eighteen candidates | We’ve combined our Second and Third Waves Funds and added some candidates from our OG Winning The House Fund in a new fund we are calling Growing The House Majority. The idea is simple - we win the House with our first House fund. We grow our majority with this one.
This fund now splits a contribution evenly among 18 candidates - Bob Brooks (PA-07), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A reminder that the maximum that a donor can contribute to any Federal candidate for the general election is $3,500, however that money is donated.
Support The State Parties’ Election Protection Program - Donate | $95,500 raised, $100,000 new stretch goal | We’ve launched a new, targeted fundraising campaign to help get the new election protection program of the State Democratic Parties, one this community helped develop, off the ground.
Winning Alaska (New) - Donate | $10,700 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Alaska campaign splits a contribution evenly among Mary Peltola for Senate, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins for governor, and the Alaska Democratic Party and its great Chair, Eric Croft.
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $45,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $59,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart.
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $93,100 raised, $150,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its battle-tested Chair, Charlie Dingman.
Winning North Carolina - Donate | $73,100 raised, $200,000 goal | Our Winning North Carolina campaign splits a contribution evenly among Roy Cooper for Senate, Anita Earls for the state Supreme Court, and the NC Democratic Party and it’s ass-kicking chair, Anderson Clayton.
Winning Ohio - Donate | $214,100 raised, $250,000 goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde.
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $34,100 raised, $150,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party (and its terrific Chair Devin Remiker) and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $686,100 raised, $750,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Friends, we’ve hit out $100,000 goal for home stretch funds for Hopium and our work. So grateful, so thankful to all of you who have contributed.!!! I am retiring the fund for now and will get back to working hard for our candidates and party committees!
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Keep working hard all. For we have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
