Greetings all. The proud, plucky patriots of this remarkable community gathered last night and the big takeaway was this - as bad as things are for Trump now, and they are bad, they are likely to get worse in the final ten weeks of the election.
The economy is getting worse. Inflation is too high. The markets are unhappy. His new trade war with Canada will further erode his standing in critical battleground states. Trump cannot admit he has lost the Iran war, and keeps humiliating himself - and growing weaker - in front of the entire world. His big cuts to health care are going to become a major issue this fall as Americans in both private and public insurance plans will see premium increases. In most elections the incumbent party loses ground as we get closer to the election. Mass deportation continues to generate terrible stories across the country daily.
To better understand why the economy is likely to continue to erode in these next ten weeks watch my new interview with economist Rob Shapiro.
Consumer confidence is at its lowest reading in the past 65 years in the University of Michigan survey:
Two children died of measles this week. Look at this extraordinary record of failure to protect the public’s health:
This is the lead story on the homepage of the Washington Post;
Here’s another Washington Post headline:
So as bad as things are now they are likely to get worse for Trump and the Rs in these final ten weeks.
And where things are for them now is bad. Here’s a round up of recent Senate polling:
Here’s a round up of recent gubernatorial polling.
In FiftyPlusOne’s forecasts today Dems have a 91% chance of flipping the House and a 55% chance of flipping the Senate:
Perhaps the most important data of all comes from the new Strength in Numbers poll this week. Americans have once again put their trust in us on the all the issues that matter. It is not just that voters have rejected MAGA. By electing us in races all across the country these past 19 months, and by what we see in this data, voters are affirmatively backing Democrats and counting on us to deliver something better for them:
In my talk we also discuss our party’s embrace of a raucous pluralism; of why I trust Leader Jeffries; on the role manipulated polling plays in our politics; on the exciting progress we are making in rolling out our New Battlefield Project with the state parties; on the need for our family to have a sustained conversation about Jews, Israel, and rising anti-semitism; and we once again read The Gettysburg Address to be inspired to embrace “the great task remaining before us” which is to bring about a “new birth of freedom” here and everywhere.
It was a lively affair - get to it when you can.
Update On Candidate/State Party Recommendations - The sheer size of the battlefield this cycle is testing our recommendations systems a bit as there are just so many races and states in play. It’s a lot for a small community like ours. Last cycle we endorsed in seventeen House races. Today we are at thirty. My goal has been to keep things tight, narrow and strategic; and relentlessly focused on taking critical stuff away from MAGA and winning/expanding into red states and districts. For us it’s been all about flipping, not keeping what we have. For flipping, taking stuff away from them is much harder, and as it much harder for challengers to raise money and win. Here we try to do the hard things, not the easy or popular ones, and it is my goal every day to make sure you are putting your money and your volunteer time to where it can make the biggest difference.
So given all this I want to say that for now we are going to stick with the Senate and House candidates we’ve endorsed so far. Yes, there are many more we should look at and consider, many other worthy candidates and states where we have opportunity. But here, at Hopium, our focus is on flipping, and right now if our thirty House and six Senate flippers win the two chambers should flip too. So let’s go do everything we can to help them win.
In addition, we will be putting much more emphasis on our state expansion work by expanding our “Winning” series. In addition to our Audacious Expansion Fund we now have five states in our “Winning” series that is rallying for truly high-value opportunities in Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Our “Winning” investments split contributions among the state party and leading state wide candidates, bolstering the entire ticket, and creating conditions for strong down ballot wins in each state too. As you will note we’ve added comprehensive pages that provides information and our interviews with the leading candidates and state parties so it is easier for folks to understand the opportunities we have in each state.
As we’ve learned with the Callais decision and the GOP’s desperate mid-decade redistricting surge our ability to control Congress is also reliant on us having more control over the re-districting process in the states. So in each “Winning” state we are investing in electing governors and in some cases flipping state legislative chambers too. We can and must both win the Federal races we need to win to gain control of Congress and work to strategically control the redistricting process and electoral systems in the states - for they are of equal importance in our fight to wrest control from MAGA and protect our democracy. In that regard I will be adding North Carolina to our “Winning” series in coming days as we have a critical state Supreme Court seat we must win there, and with Cooper running strong opportunities to make critical state legislative gains in one of the most corruptly gerrymandered states in the country.
I hope Hopium community members will continue to advocate for candidates and states not on the current, comprehensive list. Hearing you passionately make your case matters to me. I learn so much from you every day in our daily chat, and have often taken actions based on the recommendations I get from the community. I will be open to expanding our recommendations as opportunities arise and the battlefield becomes clearer, but for today we hunkering down, staying focused, and committing to getting our current crew over the finish line - for if they all win the House and Senate will flip and we will gain far more control over the redistricting process in critical battleground states across the country.
Let’s now close as we do with Hopium’s daily mantra:
There is nothing Trump and MAGA wants more than for us to be fighting with each other and not with him. We have one job now - elect as many of these wonderful candidates running for the House and Senate as we can. It’s where our focus must be. It’s a year of opportunity for us across the country. We must seize it, together.
And, yes, my friends, it is that time…….
Be sure to watch my timely, new discussion with Tom Bonier about the role of fake and manipulated polls in influencing our understanding of elections……
**Our Winning The House Campaign **- Donate | $1,076,100 raised, $1,250,000 goal (new stretch goal) | Donate to all twelve of our initial wave of House challengers with a single contribution split twelve ways | Get to know Jamie Ager (NC-11), Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Rebecca Cooke (WI-03), Elaine Luria (VA-02), Sean McCann (MI-04), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), Chaz Molder (TN-05), Jonathan Nez (AZ-02), Janelle Stelson (PA-10), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), and Sarah Trone Garriott (IA-03) by watching our recently recorded Hopium interviews.
Friends, if these twelve courageous candidates win, the House will flip, even with Callais and their rancid mid-decade redistricting. So eyes on the prize here everyone!
**Winning The House - The Second Wave Fund **- Donate | $327,100 raised, $500,000 goal - We’ve launched a second House fund, one supporting candidates who’ve emerged from late, primaries and need a bit more help.
Our newly expanded list now features Rebecca Bennett (NJ-07), Bob Brooks (PA-07), Cait Conley (NY-17), Johnny Garcia (TX-35), Bob Harvie (PA-01), Dr. Richard Pan (CA-06), Denise Powell (NE-02), Bobby Pulido (TX-15), Manny Rutinel (CO-8), Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01), Randy Villegas (CA-22), and Marni von Wilpert (CA-48).
A donation to the Second Wave Fund is split evenly among these twelve, and more as other worthy candidates emerge from their primaries. Our total above includes money we’ve raised for directly for each candidate. You can watch interviews with these great candidates here.
Winning The House - The Third Wave Fund - Donate | $22,900 raised, $500,000 goal | We’ve launched this new fund for candidates who have emerged even later from primaries and need a bit more help as we work to expand our map and go deeper into tough terrain. Our initial list - and it may grow - is Christina Hines (MI-10), Lindsay James (IA-02), Jake Johnson (MN-01), Jessica Killin (CO-5), Nancy Lacore (SC-01), and Brian Poindexter (OH-7).
Winning The Senate - $760,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal - Donate | This new fund splits a single donation to our six candidates must likely to flip a Senate seat this November - Sherrod Brown (OH), Roy Cooper (NC), Troy Jackson (ME), Mary Peltola (AK), James Talarico (TX), and Josh Turek (IA).
Our working total includes what we’ve raised for these six so far through direct donations to their campaigns. You can watch our interviews with each of these exciting candidates and/or contribute directly to any of them directly here.
The “Winning” link in each state brings you to a page that includes interviews and more information about the opportunities we have in each state.
**Winning Georgia ***- *Donate | $33,800 raised, $250,000 goal | Our Winning Georgia campaign splits a contribution three ways among Senator Jon Ossoff, gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms, and the Georgia Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Charlie Bailey.
Winning Iowa - Donate | $35,100 raised, $250,000 goal | Our Winning Iowa campaign splits a contribution three ways among Josh Turek for Senate, our gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, and to the Iowa Democratic Party and it’s great Chair, Rita Hart
**Winning Maine **- Donate | $82,100 raised, $250,000 goal | Our Winning Maine campaign splits a contribution evenly among Troy Jackson for Senate, Hannah Pingree for Governor, and the Maine Democratic Party and its Chair Charlie Dingman
Winning Ohio - Donate | $192,100 raised, $250,000 goal | Our Winning Ohio campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton-Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party and its terrific Chair, Kathleen Clyde
Winning Wisconsin - Donate | $4,100 raised, $250,000 goal - Our Winning Wisconsin campaign splits contributions evenly among David Crowley for Governor and the Wisconsin Democratic Party and it’s legislative victory fund. Our community has invested heavily in getting helping Wisconsin Democrats flip both state legislative chambers and finally get a trifecta. Now we must finish the job!
Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - Donate | $657,100 raised, $1,000,000 goal | Join our campaign that has helped expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas, all now central battlegrounds in the 2026 election | Contribute to all five state parties with one contribution split evenly among these five critical battlegrounds | Catch interviews with the five intrepid state chairs leading their troops into battle this year - will get you fired up!
Keep working hard all. We have a country to save, and elections to win all across the country, together! - Simon
