Friends, good luck tonight and thank you for all your hard work these last two years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Before we learn what happens wanted to sketch out some possible storylines of what could be an historic election. Consider this an early draft of a post-election memo……..
Greater MAGA Has Had A Bad Year. This Is Very Good News - With far right leaders and parties losing in Hungary, Brazil, Serbia, Israel, and now likely here too in the US too; with Putin struggling and Zelenskyy becoming a respected, global leader of the pro-democracy movement; and with the Labour Party in the UK righting the ship and talking of rejoining Europe - greater MAGA has had a bad year despite whatever gains it has made in local elections in Europe of late.
This weakening and struggle of greater MAGA is a very welcome development in our global fight for freedom and democracy and against the Trump/Putin/Elon illiberal internationale.
Democrats Have Expanded The Map, And Have Became Competitive Again In Four Regions Of The Country That We’ve Struggled To Compete In - The four are:
Texas (and possibly Florida too)
The Midwest/Heartland - Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio. A true Democratic revival in the Heartland. Maybe Indiana too.
The Deep South - Mississippi, South Carolina, more?
Four - Alaska!!!!!!!!!!!
Expanding the map was one of the highest priorities of our party this cycle and we’ve made exciting progress in doing so. As part of this expansion we have also expanded into regions of states also challenging for us, particularly in rural and ag related communities. Dems will need to develop a true “rural economic agenda” next year and fight like hell to get it passed to help these communities who have suffered so much under Trump.
**Democrats Have Been Able To Expand The Map In Part By Embracing What I Call A “Raucous Pluralism” **- After 2024 Democrats needed to evolve, change, and get better - and we have. We are now fielding candidates of a much wider palate than before, and ones that fit their districts and states. In this time of dramatic abandonment and betrayal Americans are seeking reliable servant-leaders, ones they can count on to deliver for them and not the oligarchs. And we have produced these servant leaders from all walks of life and all parts of the rainbow that is this remarkable nation - teachers, firefighters, union leaders, farmers, doctors, fisherman, nurses, navy pilots, marines, ministers, Tejano singers, sheriff deputies, seminarians, popular and trusted local leaders, paralympians. They have been able to take the opportunity we’ve been given and turn it into a reality……
We Are Seeing A Potentially Historic Turnout of Young Voters and Voters Of Color, Particularly Hispanics, This Election - If it holds the remarkable performance we’ve seen from young people and voters of color in the early vote is a very righteous response to Trump’s attempt to steal their futures in this country from them. Here’s the last round of early vote data from the TargetEarly noon update:
If tonight turns out to be a Tsunami not a wave the incredible intensity of two traditionally low performing voter groups - young people and Hispanics - * in the early vote* was an early warning of what was to come.
Threats To Democracy #2 Issue In The Exits Polls - Consistent with our understanding all cycle the Exit Polls found “threats to democracy” to be a driving issue in the 2026 Election, #2 to the economy. As we often say here Democrats can be both warriors for every day Americans and proud patriots fighting hard for freedom and democracy here and everywhere. It is an “and” not an “or.”
Voters Are Not Just Voting Against Republicans. They Are Also Voting For Democrats And Giving Us A Mandate To Make Things Better And Put Things Right - One would have thought given the strong performance Democrats have seen in special elections over the past two years, the November elections in 2025, in the primary elections across the country this year where we saw very elevated Democratic performance that it would be clear that voters have been voting for Democrats with enthusiasm again and again. Let’s look at a bit more data here to back up my claim…..
More people are IDing themselves as “Democrat” today than in many, many years:
We are at 53% in the generic ballot, one of the highest levels we’ve seen in recent elections:
During the course of the past year voters have once again put their faith and trust back in us:
In the initial round of Exit Polls released tonight Dem have made major gains in favorability, and are now 10 points better than the Rs. In fight and in victory our brand is slowly being repaired.
Of course with this renewed trust we will have to deliver in 2027 and beyond. We have been given a mandate now to make things better and put things right - and now must fight with everything we have to make it happen.
Some Fights That Really Mattered These Past Two Years -
House and Senate Dem battles over the ACA/Medicaid/SNAP, ICE funding, tariffs, and the war
The Texas redistricting power grab, and our powerful response
No Kings, Tesla Takedowns, and other organic protests across the country
Our legal warriors - Marc Elias, Norm Eisen Dem AGs, etc - have been an extraordinary bulwark against Trump, and deserve all the credit in the world
The people of Minnesota who overcame the ICE siege and inspired a nation
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These are some initial notes on this 2026 election. Let me know what you think and what else we need to add…….
Let’s use this chat to talk about the election tonight as the results come and good luck everyone! More, soon! - Simon
