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Finance

You Have To Like Bonds Here...Right?

Quoth the Raven · QTR’s Fringe Finance

Oct 2, 2026 · 1 min listen · Last updated October 2, 2026

Please read my disclaimer at the bottom of this post and on my “About” page carefully. You have to start to like bonds here a little, right? Here’s how I’m thinking about it. With equities, over long periods, investors generally expect annual returns of roughly 7% to 8%, albeit with plenty of volatility and drawdowns along the way.

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Please read my disclaimer at the bottom of this post and on my “About” page carefully.

You have to *start *to like bonds here a little, right? Here’s how I’m thinking about it.

With equities, over long periods, investors generally expect annual returns of roughly 7% to 8%, albeit with plenty of volatility and drawdowns along the way. Here’s Vanguard’s 10 year annualized forecast for various sectors:

More importantly, these are roughly the returns the participants in our global Ponzi scheme need to generate just to keep whatever charade they are running going for another year…whether it is a pension fund, managing an endowment, overseeing an insurance portfolio, or simply trying to meet some actuarial assumption that was made decades ago.

So if “risk-free” Treasuries are now paying more than 5%, the gap between the two (the “risk free” trade and the requirement from equities) starts narrowing and getting noticeable.

Today, with the 10-year Treasury yield at roughly 5.25%, this is how I approach bonds.

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