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With just days to go until the midterms, here’s what we’re planning at News Not Noise.
We’ll be covering developments throughout Election Day, with live conversations designed to keep you informed, aware and (relatively) calm.
Our promise: No breaking-news sirens. No partisan shouting matches. No breathless reports about developments that will be forgotten by breakfast. We’ll focus on what we actually know and what it means.
We’ll send our interviews directly to your inbox via Substack, so keep an eye on your email and expect more communication from us Tuesday. We’ll also stream live on YouTube and Instagram much of the day and night.
Now, about those young voters.
Today I spoke with , who directs polling at Harvard’s Institute of Politics and has studied young Americans for 26 years.
Remember the big story after 2024? Young men were moving right, young women left, and America had another political gender divide.
Della Volpe says it’s more complicated. The lesson from 2024 isn’t that young men are Republican, but that “young men are available voters.” His new poll suggests young voters could help deliver Democrats a big win Tuesday. (Though nothing is a given.) They’re also deeply pessimistic about their futures, and Democrats shouldn’t mistake their votes for a ringing endorsement.
We also discussed what to watch on election night (he has a useful number to remember), how to read polls without losing your mind, and how to encourage a young person to vote without delivering a lecture.
Watch our conversation at the top of this newsletter. If you’d prefer to read a transcript, that’s here.
In this newsletter: Where the key Senate races stand. The corruption election. Facing the “dummymander.” A holy vote. The DOJ doubles down in California. A familiar complaint after Israel’s election, and what comes next. Hegseth’s purge deepens at a key moment. A look at the races to watch in Alaska. And in News That Doesn’t Suck, a picture to make you smile. (And vote!)
Breaking: Tech stockslostmore than $1 trillion in value today as investors questioned whether the enormous amount of money spent on AI will ever pay off. This is raising fears that Wall Street’s AI boom may be a bubble waiting to burst.Final Stretch: With the midterms days away, Democrats have a real shot at flipping the Senate, including by winning seats they haven’t held in decades. Most of the 35 Senate racesaren’t competitive: Democrats are expected to hold 12 seats and flip North Carolina, and Republicans to hold 15. That leaves seven toss ups, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, an independent watcher of races trusted by officials across the political spectrum. Cook sees seven tossups: six Republican-held seats and one Democratic-held seat, Michigan. The GOP currently holds 53 seats in the Senate, so Democrats must win a net of four seats for a majority; in a 50-50 vote, Vice President JD Vance would cast the tiebreaker. PollingshowsDemocrats with narrow leads in six of the seven tossups:Note: We’re usingpolling averagescalculated by polling data aggregator RealClearPolitics. Averages are often more helpful than individual polls, which can vary quite widely. (For example,pollsof the Michigan Senate race over the last month range from having the Democratic candidate ahead by 9 points to the Republican candidate ahead by 2 points.)
Michigan: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by 3.2 points.Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown leads incumbent Sen. Jon Husted by 2.6 points.Kansas: Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall by 2.6 points in a deep-red state that Democrats haven’t won in a Senate race in nearly a century.Texas: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by 1.8 points.Maine: Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican incumbent Sen. Susan Collins by 1.4 points.Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan by 1.2 points.Iowa: Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek by 0.5 points.
**Deep Breath:**As we’ve warned, polls can be wrong, especially with margins this close. A polling lead is not an election result. Della Volpe explains what that means in our interview, which you can find at the top of this newsletter.
It’s the Corruption, Stupid: As usual,the economy, especially the cost of living, is driving voters. What’s unusual is the other top issue: government corruption, which somepollsrank even higher. It’s not hard to see why. Beyond the allegations against senior Trump administration figures,megadonorslike Elon Musk are spending record sums on the midterms, favoring Republicans more than three to one and increasingly funneling money through dark money groups. Voters in 20 stateswill weighin on more than two dozen measures on issues like campaign finance and voting restrictions. And 49 Democratic House candidatessigned a letterwarning that “our political system is broken” and pledging to make anti-corruption reform their “first order of business.” Voters narrowlytrustDemocrats more on corruption, though many distrust both parties.Dummymander: The GOP’s push to protect its House majorityby redrawing mapsmay backfire. Of the 15 districts Republicans gerrymandered in their favor, Cook Political Report ratesjust five“solid” or “likely” Republican. The party will probably still gaina few seats, but it’s spending tens of millions defending districts it redrew to make winning easier, promptinganalyststo call it a “dummymander.”Turning Blue: Democrats’ chances of taking the House keep improving. Cook Political Reportshifted12 more House races toward Democrats. If turnout goes as expected, the party could win a larger majority than in 2018. Emphasis on “if.”The Midterms’ Last Frontier: Today we look at Alaska, a reliably red state that voted for Trump three times but is now home to some surprisingly competitive races. Democrats hope to flip a key Senate seat and take the governor’s office for the first time in over two decades — but a last-minute scandal could undermine their chances. Read morehere.Don’t Count the Vote: The Justice Departmentaskeda judge to order Alaska election officials to separate ballots in which voters chose Dan J. Sullivan. Republicans accuse him of being a Democratic-backed spoiler candidate, though ballot-stacking — supporting candidates who might siphon votes away from your opponent — is legal and widely done, including by the GOP.
God’s Vote: Pope Leo XIVcast his mail-in ballot, becoming the first pope to vote in the U.S. — andpotentially the firstto ever vote in a secular democratic election.Too Early to Call: Early voting is far outpacing 2022, according toan Associated Press analysis, especially in states with key races. It’s up about a third in Iowa, Michigan, Kansas, and North Carolina, about half in Maine and Texas, and over 80% in South Carolina. Democrats appear tohave an edge, but Republicans have historically closed gaps on Election Day. So far the numbers tell us more about who’s voting early than who’s going to win.Age Gap: More than 80% ofearly votersare over 40, based on data from the 14 states that report voter age. Just 5.5% of early voters are 25 or under. Whether young voters show up on Election Day could make a crucial difference in the closest races. Learn more about that in the interview at the top of this newsletter.
Sick of This: Trumpcanceledhis Sunday rallies in Iowa and Kansas, then quickly reinstated them after a reporter asked if he wasn’t going because he was “sick of traveling” or there were health concerns. “I feel perfect,” Trump told the reporter, adding, “You are disgusting.” Team Trump says the schedule wasmovedto make room for more than a dozen tele-rallies.Defending Democracy: The Justice Department is threatening to prosecute California election officials over ballots a federal judge has already refused to block. Itsubpoenaedseveral Los Angeles election officials,escalating its effortto undermine confidence in California’s election. The officials aren’t necessarily under investigation, though the DOJ has threatened to prosecute them if they don’t set aside the ballots of 20,000 voters it claims, without solid evidence, are noncitizens. A federal judgerefusedto order the ballots set aside,callingthe request part of a “broad, ongoing pattern of attempted election interference” thatwould“wreak havoc” on the midterms. Hewarnedthat the threats against election officials “must stop.”Familiar Playbook: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies seized on reports that the Shin Bet is investigating alleged Qatari interference in the election toclaimit was “stolen” by Arab voters, who turned out in record numbers. (The Shin Bet, Israel’s version of the CIA, haspreviously investigatedseveral Netanyahu advisers over alleged Qatari payments.) The agency’s director and the elections committee said there’s no evidence of systematic fraud, and the opposition accused Netanyahu of trying to “delegitimize” the results, which leftneither blocwith the outright majority needed to form a ruling coalition. Havingstoked fearsof Arab influence to drive turnout, Netanyahu now hopes todeter opposition partiesfrom forming a coalition with Arab parties.**What Next:**Now it’s up to President Isaac Herzog to decide who gets the first chance to form a government. Either Netanyahu or opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot will try to cobble together a majority — Eisenkot potentially with the support of Arab parties. If they can’t, Israel will face another election.
Pentagon Leaking Personnel: Defense Secretary Pete HegsethfiredLt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, the military’s top planner, as the Trump administration prepares for anew assaulton Iran. Sen. Chris Murphy, who was briefed on the plan, called it “insane.” Sylvia’s colleagues werereportedlyinfuriated at losing an experienced leader. The Pentagonclaimsthat Sylvia leaked classified information, including on the war with Iran, and referred him for a criminal investigation. The departmentdid not provideany evidence to back its claims beyondstatingthat Sylvia failed three polygraph tests, which many expertsconsiderunreliable. A source told theWashington Postthat Sylvia denied leaking but acknowledged talking to the press, which historically hasn’t been an issue. He is the latest victim ofHegseth’s purgeof the military, which has included anunprecedented effortto root out leakers and increased hostility toward the press. The loss of so much experience hasleft the military“rudderless,” according to one report. Last year Hegsethfiredthree political appointees, accusing them of leaking — but none were criminally charged and one later rejoined the administration. Trump, apparently under the impression that Sylvia is a woman, said that “sh…
