“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so” - Mark Twain
Are reports that the President’s advisors not sharing bad news with him because they fear being fired or sidelined accurate? Is he making decisions in an information bubble?
This is adorable!
Without a doubt, THE most pressing issue right now,‘Fellow Golfers, It’s Time to Get Rid of the ‘Gimme’ Putt ‘- wsj‘Get Rid of the ‘Gimme’ Putt? Readers Aren’t So Sure’ -wsjI have to admit I’m feeling overwhelmed. There is so much information, fro so many sources, that I constantly feel like I am running as fast as i can just to stay in place. Hamster, meet wheel. The result is a hesitancy to start writing, as it almost immediately feels out of date!
With that said, lemme steelman a few things here. HUGE kudos and congratulations to the pilot, weapons officer, and the military for the rescue operation. Period, full-stop. But-and these days there is always a but- there are pieces that don’t make sense.
Trump went dark for a few days; maybe it was health-related ( as the incessant rumor mill maintains), but it was notable.
2 C-130s were said to be ‘stuck in the mud’ and destroyed to prevent technology capture. Why did the rescue mission for one pilot require 2 large transport planes?
It has been widely reported that 2 Israeli units were involved in the rescue operation: Unit 5101, an air force commando unit, and Sayeret Matkal, the elite Israeli commando team known for long‑range, high‑risk special missions. This is in addition to the reported involvement of SEAL Team Six and other U.S.commando teams. Again, why was so much personnel needed for a search-and-rescue mission?
The pilot was said to be, and the C-130s destroyed, close to Isfahan, the last known location of the cache of the estimated 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, one of the major targets of Operation Epic Fury.
Trump’s tweet yesterday morning was unusually aggressive and inflammatory.
I am going to repeat a counterfactual I have read which connects some of these dots. Could it be that the location of the pilot allowed the US and Israel to use the opportunity to mount a deep-penetration operation to seize the uranium? That would explain the president’s silence and rage tweet yesterday when the operation failed, and certainly explain the level of force injected into the Iranian interior. Capture of the uranium would certainly be a defensible off-ramp and allow the US to ‘declare victory’ despite the issues surrounding the Strait
Obviously, I do not know anything, but there is a great deal of smoke here, and this scenario does fit the facts. Just saying…
Once again, I’m pressed for time and space, so hopefully I will write more later, but the Iranian strategy around the Strait is designed to put the petrodollar, and with it a good part of the rationale for the US dollar as the reserve currency, at risk. Devilishly clever.
Today’s Five Things (TL;DR)1. April 6 Hormuz Ultimatum — TODAY. Trump’s April 6 deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face severe consequences is the single binary event driving all markets today. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at $109.73/bbl and WTI at $111.20, after Trump delivered another threat to Iran. Resolution = $85-90 WTI; Kharg Island escalation = $130+.
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Market Stabilizing on Ceasefire Speculation. The S&P 500 secured its first weekly gain since the war with Tehran began — the major averages posted gains with the S&P 500 rising 3.4%, the Dow Jones adding nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq soaring 4.4%. S&P futures stand at 6,631.75 (+0.14%), Dow Futures at 46,724 (-0.02%), and Nasdaq Futures at 24,292.25 (+0.31%).
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Fed Paralyzed. The Fed maintained the federal funds rate in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with officials indicating they still expect to cut their key rate once in 2026. Officials now expect inflation to reach an annual rate of 2.7% by the end of 2026, up from the prior estimate of 2.4%. Warsh nomination blocked by Sen. Tillis; Powell serves pro-tem.
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Q1 Earnings Critical. JPMorgan Chase is scheduled to report on April 14, 2026, with an expected EPS between $5.32 and $5.50, while Bank of America reports April 15. The S&P 500 financials sector slid 9.8% in the first quarter, underperforming the broad-market index’s 3.45% decline — a stark contrast to a banner 2025 for banks.
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Stagflation Watch — March CPI Friday. Barclays Senior U.S. Economist Pooja Sriram expects March headline inflation to be the hottest since May 2022, at 0.9% month-over-month (3.3% year-over-year), led by a surge in gasoline prices. A beat above 0.9% collapses 2026 cut expectations.
KEY THEMESCeasefire hopes are injecting cautious optimism into markets as Iran and the United States received a draft proposal late Sunday calling for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz . The proposal comes from Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish mediators . US stock futures rose 0.3% in light trading after the Easter holiday, while Brent crude traded near $108 a barrel and the dollar weakened . However, President Donald Trump threatened to bring “Hell” to Iran with strikes on power plants and other infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened . The conflict has lasted five weeks, with dozens of refineries, oil fields, gas plants, ports and other energy infrastructure damaged by missile and drone strikes . Two tankers carrying liquefied natural gas from Qatar appeared to be attempting to exit the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, with the move being closely monitored as a successful transit would mark the first exports to buyers outside of the region since the war started .
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Magnificent Seven stocks rose in premarket trading, with Tesla up 1.6%, Meta up 1.1%, Alphabet up 0.9%, Microsoft and Nvidia up 0.7%, Amazon up 0.5% and Apple up about 0.2% . S&P 500 futures added 0.3% as investors took some comfort on signs of a possible Iran ceasefire . Treasury 10-year yield added 1 basis point to 4.35% . Brent crude was trading near $108 a barrel after earlier gains . The dollar weakened, with EUR/USD extending gains to rise 0.3% to 1.1554 .
MACRO
The International Monetary Fund warns that the conflict’s economic fallout is sweeping across fuel-importing nations and threatening to derail fragile economic recoveries worldwide . The UN’s trade and development arm said “What began as a disruption in a key energy corridor is now feeding through the entire global economy” . Economists are penciling in a 1% increase in the consumer price index for March, the sharpest one-month advance since 2022, after the Iran war pushed gas prices at the pump up by about $1 per gallon . European natural gas prices climbed above $600 per 1,000 cubic meters . The Reserve Bank of India’s rate-setting panel started its three-day brainstorming session on Monday amid expectations of a status quo on the benchmark lending rate in view of apprehensions of a spike in inflation due to the ongoing West Asia crisis .
COMMODITY
Saudi Arabia raised the price of its main oil grade to Asia to a record high premium of $19.50 over regional benchmarks for refiners in Asia . Brent crude was down about 0.4% at near $108.60, having been down 1.5% earlier, as volatility persists amid uncertainty about ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran . US benchmark West Texas Intermediate opened up 1.86% to $113.62 a barrel . Iraq told traders and refiners they can collect crude cargoes as vessels carrying the country’s oil are now able to transit the Strait of Hormuz thanks to an Iranian exemption . Spot silver collapsed over 11% . Gold’s upside may be capped as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts ease .
FLOWS AND POSITIONING
Bitcoin rose above $70,000 and strengthened 3.6% . Bitcoin jumped 3% to $69,120 on Monday as traders returned from the Easter weekend to a burst of optimism around a potential Iran ceasefire, pushing the largest cryptocurrency to its highest level in over a week and squeezing $196 million in short positions over the past 24 hours . Investors withdrew money from exchange-traded funds that buy emerging market stocks and bonds last week, marking the fourth straight week of outflows totaling $859.3 million . Emerging market ETFs fell for the fourth week in a $5.69 billion streak .
This was really on Truth Social
We are being clowned
Keep an eye on this as we hear about attacks on civilian infrastructre
‘Mapping the Damage from the Iran War I: The Timeline of the Supply Chain Shock’- Defy The Odds‘Mapping the Damage from the Iran War II: How Bad It Gets’- Defy The Odds
**From Construction Physics **Reading List 04/04/2026 https://bit.ly/4veCx0L
War in Iran
The world’s largest aluminum smelter in Bahrain was hit by an Iranian drone, bringing production offline. [Bloomberg] Other aluminum smelters in the area have cut production due to inability to ship through the Strait. This, in turn, has forced various EV manufacturers to cut production. “Gulf smelters that supply Toyota, Nissan, BMW, parts makers for Mercedes-Benz, South Korea’s Hyundai Mobis and hundreds of other automotive customers worldwide are defaulting on contracts or closing down. The U.S.-Iran war has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, cutting off one of the largest flows of automotive-grade aluminum.” [Rest of World]
Israel bombed two Iranian steel factories. [NYT] The US bombed an Iranian bridge that was one of the largest in the Middle East. [BBC] And another Amazon data center was damaged by an Iranian drone. [Reuters]
The Philippines declares a National Energy Emergency. [Reuters] And Germany considers ramping up coal power to avert an energy crisis. [Politico]
Helium production in Qatar, which is responsible for roughly 1/3rd of the world’s supply, has been shut down. [NYT] We’ve previously noted that helium is a critical input for semiconductor manufacturing and MRI machines, but it’s apparently also crucial for mass spectrometers used in science labs. [𝕏X]
The world is running out of ways to deal with the disruption to oil supply that don’t involve using less oil. “In the first days of this war, the strait’s closure meant the immediate loss of 20 million daily barrels of crude and refined products. The industry went to work, activating a first layer of defense: using up stocks. The second layer came soon after as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates rerouted some exports using bypass pipelines to Red Sea and Gulf of Oman ports. The third defense came from politicians. The richest nations tapped their strategic reserves, injecting millions of barrels into the market. US President Donald Trump also made constant — and effective — verbal interventions. His jawboning about the chance of an end to the fighting helped tame panic buying.” [Bloomberg]
Italy denied US military aircraft permission to land at a base in Sicily for operations against Iran. [Bloomberg]
Because Iranian ships can traverse the Strait of Hormuz freely, Iran is actually making more money from oil sales than it was prior to the war. “Iran is now earning nearly twice as much from oil sales each day as it did before American and Israeli bombs started falling on February 28th. It may be pummelled on the battlefield, but the regime is winning the energy war.” [The Economist]
‘Why The Global Economy Will Begin To Collapse In Eight Days’- Porter Stansberry
‘Hedge Funds Post Worst Month Since 2022 as SRT Market Expands and Quant Talent Reallocates’- Quant Enthusiasts
‘The overlooked private credit risk is in life insurance’ `Axios‘Data is hard to come by, but one estimate from researchers last year at the Chicago Fed finds that life insurer investments in private credit reached $849 billion in 2024 — that’s more than double what it was in 2014 and close to half of the $1.8 trillion sector.’
‘Assessment 011 | The Cascade:The war’s secondary effects have crossed a threshold. They are no longer consequences. They are independent crises with their own momentum, and most of them will not stop when the bombing stops.’ (The Omision)
