What did the declassified documents reveal?

China's Long-Run Security Policy: Political Implications of Growing Capabilities for Nuclear Conflict Released through The Black Vault, a collection of declassified CIA records, this document is a Special National Intelligence Estimate, SNIE 13-4-83, dated circa July 26, 1983. It is a 30-page report on China's security policy and its implications for the United States. The document was released through a Freedom of Information Act request, and its contents are now available on the Internet Archive. The canonical PDF can be found at https://archive.org/download/us-china-intel-CI02230/CI02230djvu.txt. The report begins by stating that Chinese leaders have changed their tack in dealing with the United States and the Soviet Union, proclaiming their adherence to an "independent foreign policy." However, their perception of the Soviet Union as the main threat to their security and of the United States as the only strategic counterweight to that threat has not changed. The report notes that the Chinese have made tactical adjustments in their policy, probing Soviet willingness to reduce tensions and distancing themselves publicly from the United States. Meanwhile, the Chinese are pressing ahead with the gradual development of their strategic nuclear force, begun in the mid-1960s. According to the report, by 1987, the Chinese will probably have one operational missile-firing nuclear submarine, and by 1993, they will have a nuclear force of 10 to 20 full-range deployed ICBMs. This Special National Intelligence Estimate assesses China's long-run security policies and the political implications of these policies for the United States. It concludes that China will continue to pursue a foreign policy that enhances its ability to maneuver between the two superpowers, but will remain inhibited in attaining a significant capability for maneuver by the greater threat posed to it by the Soviet Union. The report notes that China's leaders will probably be satisfied to have their country occupy a role analogous to that of France, relying on strategic nuclear forces to serve deterrence purposes rather than to constitute a ticket to the superpower club. In terms of the implications for the United States, the report states that China's long-run security policy will affect the United States in several ways. The Soviets have had to take account of China's nuclear retaliatory capability since the deployment of China's CSS-4 intercontinental ballistic missile in 1980-81. The United States has also had to take account of possible attacks on its own territory. The report concludes that China's need for US trade, educational facilities, and technology, and its common interest with the United States in opposing Soviet expansionism, will continue to provide some basis for consultation on these and other matters of shared strategic concern. China will continue to take positions that diverge from the United States on a range of Third World issues, but may be more interested in…

Why was this case declassified?

This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. The originating source document is linked on this page so the citation chain is auditable.

CIA China's Long Run Security Policy: Political Implications Of Growing

◆ BLUF — The short version

China's Long-Run Security Policy: Political Implications of Growing Capabilities for Nuclear Conflict Released through The Black Vault, a collection of declassified CIA records, this document is a Special National Intelligence Estimate, SNIE 13-4-83, dated circa July 26, 1983. It is a 30-page report on China's security policy and its implications for the United States.

Date: AUG 2 · 2026
Release: Declassified · U.S. public record (FOIA)
Source document: View the primary source document

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What was CIA China's Long Run Security Policy: Political Implications Of Growing about?: China's Long-Run Security Policy: Political Implications of Growing Capabilities for Nuclear Conflict Released through The Black Vault, a collection of declassified CIA records, this document is a Special National Intelligence Estimate, SNIE 13-4-83, dated circa July 26, 1983. It is a 30-page report on China's security policy and its implications for the United States.
Why was this case declassified?: This material entered the public record through the U.S. declassification and Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) process. Storyflo narrates it directly from the public release.

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CIA China's Long Run Security Policy: Political Implications Of Growing

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