Demand for optical interconnects in AI data centers is growing rapidly. As co-packaged optics (CPO) moves toward commercial deployment, a supply chain that previously drew less attention is facing a new test: indium phosphide (InP) laser capacity.
In the CPO switches shipping today, external light sources still mainly use InP-based lasers. Lumentum and Coherent are the main suppliers in this space, and both are accelerating the build-out of high-power laser capacity. The problem is that demand for traditional pluggable optical modules is also growing. CPO is not replacing the existing market and then growing on its own; it adds a new source of pull on top of existing demand.
Several suppliers have said explicitly that current InP capacity cannot meet demand. Judging from the expansion plans of each company, this tightness could last until 2028.