“Memory module prices plummet sharply” has surged to the top of trending searches, causing storage concept stocks to tumble, with widespread discussions on whether the super cycle has come to an end.
However, the situation in the contract market is completely the opposite. DRAM contract prices for Q1 2026 are expected to rise 90% to 95% quarter-over-quarter, and the price increase for Q2 has already been locked in, with another ~30% rise anticipated. According to the latest data from TrendForce, overall DRAM contract prices in Q2 will still increase by 58% to 63% QoQ, while NAND Flash contract prices will rise by 70% to 75% QoQ.
At the same time, major North American cloud providers such as Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are racing to sign long-term agreements with SK Hynix extending to the end of this decade. They are willing to pay a 50% to 60% premium over mobile device manufacturers to secure capacity.
The underlying reason is not difficult to understand. The sharp decline in the spot market reflects the massive inventory accumulated over the past year from a flood of off-market capital and new players speculating in the market, now being dumped amid panic. In contrast, the contract market—which determines industry sentiment—and enterprise-grade demand show no signs of weakening in tandem.
